The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on August 12 that the COVID summer wave was growing or likely growing in 50 states and the District of Columbia. Iowa was the lone exception because the agency had insufficient data to produce a trend estimate.
The CDC’s Current Epidemic Trends model sorts transmission into growing, likely growing, stable, likely declining or declining. On August 12, 47 states were classified as growing, while New Hampshire, Rhode Island and the District of Columbia were labeled likely growing.
Andrew Pekosz on COVID
Andrew Pekosz of Johns Hopkins School of Public Health said the latest figures fit a pattern that has appeared in recent years. “This looks like a pattern that has been documented in the past few years. Late summer/early fall surge of COVID cases seems to be part of the expected pattern of COVID-19 cases that we see,” he said in an interview with Newsweek.
He also said the pace is steady rather than abrupt. “Cases are increasing at a relatively steady pace, they aren’t surging dramatically. This is what we have come to expect from COVID-19 now that we are in the “seasonal” phase and out of the “pandemic” phase of the disease. There aren’t any virus variants or mutants that are particularly concerning in the U.S. at this time. COVID-19 is still an important disease to follow and for people to pay attention to, but these numbers are consistent with what I would call the expected or usual COVID-19 season.”
CDC Growth Trends
On July 22, the CDC estimated infections were growing or likely growing in 37 states, and 11 states were seeing little change in transmission. By August 12, no state was listed as not changing, declining or likely declining, and the national estimate remained above the threshold the model uses to indicate transmission growth.
The model does not estimate how many Americans currently have COVID-19, but it does show whether transmission is moving up or down. In many states, the CDC estimate shows greater than a 99 percent probability that infections are increasing, including California, Texas, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Georgia.
What Readers Should Do
Pekosz said the figures should be a reminder to get COVID-19 booster shots and to check a local pharmacy for antivirals if treatment is needed after infection. He also urged people to check influenza and RSV vaccines, along with influenza drugs, if they are eligible.
Peter Chin-Hong said, “This tells us that we are in a broad national wave of COVID inf.”
