The Dodgers were not just hoping to finish the job on Sunday, August 23 — they had a very obvious reason to like their chances. In Pirates vs Dodgers, the pitching edge pointed straight at Blake Snell, and that is usually where a betting argument starts and ends. When a starter is carrying a 2.16 xERA and a 22.2% K-BB%, you are not talking about a marginal advantage. You are talking about a matchup that should tilt the whole evening.
That mattered even more because the Pirates were in rough shape against left-handed pitching this month, posting only a 73 wRC+. Against that backdrop, Snell looked like the kind of arm that could make the rest of the board look very simple. The Dodgers were chasing a sweep, and this was the exact sort of spot where a dominant left-hander can turn a tense finale into something far less complicated.
Why Snell looked like the difference
The case for Los Angeles was built on more than name value. Snell was backed by a 116 Stuff+ mark, which only reinforced the sense that his stuff was playing at a level the Pirates would struggle to solve. The Pirates, by contrast, were running into the same problem they had all month against southpaws: not enough quality contact, not enough consistent pressure, and not enough evidence that they could suddenly flip the script against a pitcher in this kind of form.
That is why the market leaned so firmly toward the Dodgers. The numbers told a clear story: Snell had the form, the swing-and-miss profile, and the matchup edge. Pittsburgh had the split problem, and that is the kind of weakness that becomes brutally obvious when a top-end lefty is on the mound.
The Pirates' counter was hard to trust
Carmen Mlodzinski was the Pittsburgh starter, but the recent form was hardly reassuring. Since the All-Star break, he had a 6.95 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP, which is about as blunt an argument against confidence as you can get. If the Pirates needed this game to become a battle of attrition, their starter was not offering much help in making that happen.
That left the Dodgers in a comfortable-looking position. Freddie Freeman was the hitter singled out against Mlodzinski, and it is easy to see why. Los Angeles had the more convincing pitcher, the better split advantage, and the more stable path to controlling the game from the start. In a series finale built around pitching, that is usually enough to separate the team that is supposed to win from the team that is merely hoping to hang around.
The Dodgers were expected to face the Pirates in a spot that looked heavily tilted before the first pitch. Snell’s recent performance made the edge impossible to ignore, and Pittsburgh’s numbers against left-handed pitching only made the gap wider. In other words, this was not some flimsy lean. It was a very straightforward bet on the better arm, in the better form, against the weaker matchup.
