yahoo.com’s market case is stark: the S&P 500 hit an all-time high in August, yet the Shiller CAPE ratio says the index is historically expensive. Long-term investors still have a historical edge if they keep buying through a downturn and stay invested for five to 10 years or more.
The benchmark has delivered a total return of 1,090% since the depths of the Great Recession in January 2009. Since 1928, it has produced 10% average annual returns, which is the figure behind the argument that patience, not perfect timing, has done the heavy lifting over time.
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF returns
The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF has delivered annualized returns of about 15% in the 16 years since its inception in September 2010. It also had a one-year return of more than 19.5%, which shows how strong the recent run has been for investors who stayed exposed.
A $600 monthly investment in stocks earning a 10% average annual return would grow to $1.18 million after 30 years. That kind of compounding is why a bear market starting tomorrow does not automatically break the long-term case for diversified investors.
State Street SPDR S&P Midcap 400 ETF Trust
The State Street SPDR S&P Midcap 400 ETF Trust holds 400 mid-sized company stocks, and only 14.5% of the fund is in tech stocks. It has delivered average annual returns of 11.3% for the past 31 years and returned about 20.5% in the past year.
For investors worried that a narrow market led by Nvidia and AI-linked names has run too far, that mix offers a different exposure pattern without leaving stocks altogether. The practical trade-off is lower concentration in giant technology names and broader participation across the market.
Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF
The Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF tracks the Russell 2000 index and holds 1,997 stocks of small-cap companies. Its median market cap is $3.6 billion, and it has delivered average annual returns of 11.3% since September 2010.
That gives investors another way to diversify beyond the S&P 500 while keeping equity exposure. The real decision is not whether a bear market can start tomorrow, but whether an investor is prepared to keep buying through it for years rather than months.
