Adobe looked far below GuruFocus’s earnings-based DCF value on September 01, 2026. The stock traded at $292.79, while the intrinsic value came in at $713.44. That gap left the shares marked significantly undervalued, even after a 16.3% year-to-date decline and a 17.9% drop over one year.
Adobe DCF at $713.44
The earnings-based estimate put Adobe’s margin of safety at 59.0%. GuruFocus also set the terminal growth rate at 4%. That is the core math behind the gap: a price in the low $200s against a model value above $700.
The same analysis gave Adobe a Free Cash Flow-based intrinsic value of $776.25 and a 62.3% margin of safety. Its GF Value™ stood at $593.98, which still sat well above the market price. Three different methods pointed in the same direction, even if they did not land on the same number.
GF Score™ and predictability
Adobe’s GF Score™ was 86/100, a strong mark inside the same framework. But the predictability rank was only 1/5 stars, and that weakens how far readers should lean on the DCF output. A low predictability rank means the model depends more heavily on its assumptions, especially the growth path and discounting used to reach the valuation.
That is the friction inside the story. Adobe screens as inexpensive across earnings-based DCF, Free Cash Flow-based DCF, and GF Value™, yet the rank warns that the estimate rests on a model with limited consistency. The share-price slide and the valuation gap move in the same direction, but the confidence level does not rise with them.
Guru 13F signals
Holding behavior added another layer. GuruFocus said 19 gurus currently hold Adobe stock, with 11 adding to positions and 8 trimming. Insiders were net sellers over the past 12 months, so the market is not reading the stock with one voice.
For readers tracking Adobe, the immediate takeaway is simple: the valuation models point much higher than the current price, but the weakest part of the setup is the predictability grade. The next move belongs to the market, and the more useful follow-up question is what growth and discount-rate assumptions can keep an earnings-based intrinsic value near $713.44 when the stock is still trading at $292.79.
