Thickthorn Tom was backed for Friday’s Haydock Races as he attempted to complete a four-timer over fences, with the ten-year-old carrying a 7lb penalty after landing the hat-trick in good style last time out. The case for the horse is straightforward enough: he is in winning form, has already shown he can handle the task in front of him, and still looked appealing despite the extra burden.
The key issue at Haydock was always going to be the ground. On Friday, the track was expected to receive a few more millimetres of rain, and that could make the race more demanding as the afternoon went on. In betting terms, that brings conditions into play just as much as the handicap mark, especially in a race where small changes in pace or footing can alter the shape of the contest.
Why Thickthorn Tom was the pick
The selection was built around momentum. Thickthorn Tom had already put together three wins in a row, and that sort of sequence matters in a race like this because confidence and rhythm are often just as important as raw ability. A 7lb penalty is never ideal, but it did not look enough to dismiss a horse who had been doing his work efficiently and was still being backed to keep the run going.
There was also a positive angle in the stable context. Dan Skelton has done extremely well with horses like Thickthorn Tom, particularly during the summer months and the early jumps season, and that kind of record gives backers extra reassurance when a horse is being asked to step up again under a penalty.
Woven adds another layer to the race
Woven was another runner to note because his price had collapsed, and he brought form on soft or heavy ground into a race that could become more testing if the rain arrived. At York the time before his last run, Woven finished second of 21, which underlined that he has the level to be involved if conditions turn in his favour.
That left the market with a clear shape: Thickthorn Tom was slightly on the drift, Woven was attracting support, and the forecast pointed to a race where ground could matter as much as recent form. For backers and analysts alike, it made Haydock an interesting betting puzzle rather than a simple form book exercise.
Even so, Thickthorn Tom remained the horse to follow in the race. He had the winning sequence, the proven current form, and the backing of a trainer who has been getting results with this type of contender. The 7lb penalty asks a question, but on Friday at Haydock, he still looked capable of answering it.
