The Senior Citizens League lowered its 2027 Social Security benefit changes forecast to 3.6% in August, trimming an earlier 3.9% estimate after new inflation data. The revised figure points to a smaller increase than retired workers were first told to expect, with the official Social Security COLA set each October for the following year.
TSCL said in May that Social Security's 2027 COLA would be 3.9%. By August, it had cut that forecast to 3.6%, a reduction of 0.3 percentage points that still leaves the estimate 0.8 percentage points above the 2026 COLA.
TSCL and CPI-W
TSCL bases its forecast on inflation data because Social Security COLAs are tied to CPI-W, the Consumer Price Index measure built around the spending habits of workers in urban households where at least half of total income comes from clerical or wage occupations. The Social Security Administration announces the official COLA each October for the subsequent year, so August revisions can still affect expectations before the final number is set.
That system is why the forecast matters now. A 3.6% increase in 2027 would still be the largest percent increase in benefits since 2023, even after the cut from May. For a retired worker receiving $1,000 a month, that would mean about $36 more a month, while a $2,000 monthly benefit would rise by about $72.
CPI-E and retired workers
Critics of CPI-W argue that it does not match the way retired workers spend money, since retirees typically spend more on housing and medical care. CPI-E, which tracks inflation for people aged 62 and older, has outpaced CPI-W inflation by 0.7 percentage points annually over the last three years, and it is currently running even with CPI-W inflation in 2026.
That gap leaves the next official COLA as the main number retirees will be watching, because it will determine how much extra monthly income appears in the checks issued after the October announcement. If the final adjustment lands near TSCL's 3.6% estimate, the increase will be smaller than the May projection but still one of the strongest since 2023.
