NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released a NOAA winter weather forecast map for December 2026 through February 2027. The outlook favors above-normal temperatures across much of the United States.
The map does not rank states by expected temperature. It shows the probability that seasonal average temperatures will land above, near or below normal, and NOAA says its monthly updates could shift the picture as winter approaches.
West and northern United States
The strongest above-normal temperature signal stretches across the West and northern United States. States across the Pacific Northwest, Mountain West, northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast are among the areas with elevated odds of a warmer-than-normal winter.
Above-normal temperatures are also favored across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. For residents in the Pacific Northwest, the forecast points to warmer odds over a three-month season, not a day-by-day call on every storm or cold snap.
Climate Prediction Center outlook
NOAA puts the odds of a very strong El Niño during the fall and winter at greater than 90%. That pattern can shape broad winter tendencies, but the seasonal outlook still leaves room for individual cold snaps or snowstorms.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issues its official 90-day outlooks monthly. For readers in the favored regions, the practical takeaway is to follow the next update rather than treat this map as a fixed winter script.
El Niño and winter updates
The December 2026 through February 2027 outlook is a seasonal forecast, so it describes three-month averages instead of specific weekly conditions. As winter draws closer, NOAA's monthly outlooks can adjust the map and refine where the warmer signal is strongest.
