Rhun Iorwerth will meet John Swinney and Michelle O'Neill in Cardiff on Monday in the Scottish Welsh Northern Irish Leaders Meeting, with independence and the future of the UK on the agenda. The talks bring together the leaders of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland in their party roles, not as first ministers, after fresh polling and sharper language around constitutional change.
Cardiff talks
The three leaders will gather in Cardiff because the meeting is meant to test how far support for independence-style arguments now stretches across Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Rhun Iorwerth leads Plaid Cymru, John Swinney leads the SNP and Michelle O'Neill leads Sinn Féin, so the discussion sits inside a wider push from parties that want to move the UK toward a post-UK future.
John Swinney set the tone before the talks by saying the “momentum behind serious constitutional change is undeniable” and by calling on Westminster to prepare for a “post-UK future”. He also said, “Every nation across these islands is standing at a moment of incredible constitutional opportunity.”
Polling in Wales and Scotland
The latest polling gives the Cardiff meeting its practical edge. A Survation poll for YesCymru found 32% of likely referendum voters in Wales would vote Yes and 68% No when undecided and refused respondents were removed. In Scotland, a separate Survation poll of 2,036 voters found 47% for Yes, 43% for No and 9% undecided; when those without a preference were removed, the result moved to 52%-48% for independence.
Those numbers point to a stronger pro-independence position in Scotland than in Wales, where support remains well short of a majority among decided voters. They also explain why the meeting is being held now: the leaders can point to polling that is moving in one direction in Scotland while still showing a more limited base in Wales.
Northern Ireland numbers
Northern Ireland is part of the same conversation, but the figures there are more restrained. A survey of 1,534 voters in May found 35.8% would vote for a united Ireland if asked tomorrow and 49.7% would not. When non-answers were removed, roughly 42% were in favour of reunification and 58% against.
Michelle O'Neill’s presence matters because Sinn Féin treats Irish reunification as part of the same constitutional debate that is now being discussed in Cardiff. The poll suggests that, unlike in Scotland, support in Northern Ireland still falls below a majority even after undecided voters are stripped out.
Westminster response
The political push from John Swinney now runs into a firmer line from Downing Street and the House of Commons. Andy Burnham said in the House of Commons that he was not aware of majority public support for another referendum and that until that changes, there will not be one. Downing Street said Burnham’s remarks did not represent a change in UK Government policy.
In a letter to John Swinney on Thursday, the Prime Minister said there was currently “no consensus for an independence referendum in Scotland” and said another vote remained “off limits”. That leaves the Cardiff meeting as a conversation about pressure, numbers and timing rather than any immediate route to a vote.
The clearest test now is whether Rhun Iorwerth, John Swinney and Michelle O'Neill leave Cardiff with any common line on independence, Irish reunification or a post-UK future. If they do not, the polling will still frame the debate, but Westminster will keep the next constitutional move in its own hands.
