Dani Dyer has been given the strongest pre-launch forecast for Strictly Come Dancing 2026, with a 24.8% chance of lifting the Glitterball Trophy. The model was run hours before tonight's launch show, when the celebrities will be paired with their professional dance partners at 7.25pm on One.
Ahead of Dani Dyer returns as Strictly Come Dancing 2026 reveals begin, the prediction matters because it turns one contestant into the early benchmark before the first pairing is even set. British Gambler ran 1,000 simulations of the series, a volume that makes the ranking more than a casual guess: it is a spread of possible outcomes built from previous performance experience, athletic backgrounds, dance training, entertainment profiles, and current winner betting odds.
24.8% and 0.1%
24.8% put Dyer first in the model, while Shaun Wright-Phillips came out on top of just 0.1% of simulations. Lawrence Robb led 17.1%, Lacey Turner 15.6%, and Tabby Stoecker 12.4%, which shows how quickly the field can fragment once the model weighs different backgrounds against one another.
24.8% also sits on top of a very specific advantage: Dyer already trained with Nikita Kuzmin last year before an ankle fracture forced her to withdraw before the live competition. Alex Kostin said, "Dani Dyer has already had the Strictly experience that most of this year's contestants are about to go through, so our supercomputer has given her a significant head start."
Alex Kostin on Dani Dyer
Britain Gambler's spokesperson added another layer to the forecast, saying, "Dani never actually got to compete last year, but training with Nikita Kuzmin before her injury means she isn't walking into the ballroom completely cold, and her competitive experience since then only adds to her profile." That is the part bettors and viewers will be weighing against a live show that has not started yet.
Alex Kostin was more cautious about treating the leaderboard as fixed, saying, "Strictly is notoriously difficult to predict because the professional pairing, choreography, music, and public vote can completely change the picture." The pairing reveal tonight is the real test, because the model's lead belongs to Dyer now, not after the first dance and not after the public starts voting.
Strictly Come Dancing 2026
The clean read is that Dyer enters the launch show as the early favorite, but the forecast is still only a forecast. Once the celebrities are matched with their professional partners, the numbers stop being abstract and start facing the format that has already undone one of Dyer's previous runs.
