Industry data showed UK house price growth halved to 0.8% in September, with average prices slipping 0.2% month on month to £274,251. For buyers, that leaves the market weaker than it was in August, but still far from a broad fall: prices are easing while mortgage costs remain elevated.
Robert Gardner and September
0.8% annual growth was the slowest pace of home price growth since December last year, after 1.6% in August. Nationwide said the housing market had been subdued in recent months, and Robert Gardner said: "Geopolitical tensions remain high, with the conflict in the Middle East exerting upward pressure on energy prices, fanning inflation concerns".
£274,251 was the average home price in September, and the monthly dip came alongside the same forces that have been pressing demand lower. Gardner added: "This in turn has led to mounting financial market expectations of Bank [of England] rate increases, which has maintained upward pressure on the market interest rates which underpin mortgage pricing."
Moneyfacts and mortgage rates
5.9% was the level sitting above the average rate on both a two-year fixed mortgage and a five-year fixed-rate mortgage, according to Moneyfacts. The two-year rate had risen to its highest level since July 2024, while the five-year rate had hit its highest level since October 2023, tightening budgets for anyone trying to remortgage or buy with a smaller deposit.
92% was the chance investors were pricing in for a Bank of England move from 3.75% to 4% at its next meeting on 5 November. That expectation keeps the cost of borrowing elevated even before any policy decision lands, because lenders price mortgages off market rates rather than waiting for the meeting itself.
East Anglia and Northern Ireland
0.7% was the biggest annual decline, recorded in East Anglia, while Northern Ireland posted 5.9% growth. The gap shows a market that is no longer moving in one direction: some regions are already softening, while others are still recording solid gains.
Robert Gardner said: "Underlying affordability is improving, as house price growth has been well below earnings growth for some time". He added: "These gains have been only partially offset by higher mortgage rates." In practical terms, that means the price side of the market is easing faster than the borrowing side, so the pressure on first-time buyers is lower than it was, but not gone.
Bank of England on 5 November
5 November is the next fixed point for the market, with the Bank of England due to meet as inflation stood at 3.1% and policymakers had already warned that consumer price index inflation could rise above 4% in the first quarter of 2027. Gardner said: "This suggests that activity should regain momentum in the quarters ahead, providing the energy shock fades and confidence returns – especially if market interest rates fall back to pre-conflict levels."
The immediate test for buyers is whether lenders hold these mortgage levels into November or add more pressure after the Bank of England meeting. For now, the numbers point to a market that is slowing, but not collapsing, and to a buyer base that still has to do the math on every monthly payment.
For a wider read on pressure inside another sector, see the consulting industry and AI impact.
