Lewis Jones has backed Brentford on the double chance alongside under 3.5 goals for their Premier League meeting with Liverpool, with the combined angle priced at 11/10 in Super 6. It is the sort of selection that fits a game Jones expects to stay competitive rather than open up into a high-scoring shootout.
The case for the under comes from Liverpool's numbers this season. They have scored six non-penalty Premier League goals, but they have also created only nine Opta-defined big chances. That is a modest return on the attacking data and suggests they have not always turned control into a flood of clear openings.
Brentford's side of the argument is more about resilience and keeping the match in range. Jones' pick leans on the idea that Brentford can make life difficult and stay within touching distance, which is why the double chance and low-goal combination stands out as the preferred angle.
There is also a wider pattern behind Jones' weekend view. Last weekend, he landed three of his four best bets, which will only add confidence to readers looking for a measured approach rather than a punt on a runaway result.
What the numbers suggest
The broader statistical picture points in the same direction. Since the start of last season, Chelsea have conceded set-piece goals at a rate of 0.53 per 90 minutes, while this season they have already conceded seven goals from set pieces. In another sign that chances do not always translate into goals, Brighton have created 27 Opta-defined big chances this season, highlighting how chance creation and finishing output can diverge.
There is also a recent note on James Tarkowski, who scored against Bournemouth this season. It is another reminder that specific game states and individual moments can shape betting angles in ways that are not always obvious from the headline fixture.
As for Andoni Iraola, the only verified context available is that he has faced Brentford seven times, with five of those meetings providing the relevant comparison point. That history adds another layer to the weekend discussion, even if the betting focus remains on the Brentford v Liverpool selection.
For readers following Super 6, the appeal is straightforward: Jones has identified a match that looks tight on paper, and he has tied that view to an odds-based recommendation at 11/10.
