Donald Trump’s Trump midterm election outlook has turned sharply negative. Sixty-four percent of voters disapprove of President Trump’s job performance, while 47% prefer Democratic control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
That split came from an -NORC poll conducted October 8-12, 2026 among 1,119 adults, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. It captures a political mood that is leaning hard toward change before the 2026 midterms.
Economy drives the ballot box
The economy sat at the center of that mood. Eighty-five percent of voters said it is one of the most important issues in the upcoming election, and 84% said the same about the cost of living.
Health care drew 69% as a top issue, while 64% named the war with Iran. Immigration and crime each landed at 45%, followed by artificial intelligence at 35% and transgender issues at 12%.
Those numbers help explain why the poll leans toward change rather than continuation. Eight in 10 voters want substantial change or complete and total upheaval in how the country is run, with about half of Democrats wanting complete and total upheaval, four in 10 independents saying the same, and nearly half of Republican voters wanting substantial change.
Trump’s numbers diverge
Trump’s own ratings show the same split. Forty-five percent of voters approved of how he is handling crime, but 74% disapproved of his handling of the economy and 79% disapproved of his handling of the cost of living.
His overall approval stood at 36%, compared with 64% disapproval. Forty percent of voters viewed the Democratic Party favorably, while 36% held a favorable view of the Republican Party.
That contrast is the most important read for the 2026 midterms. Voters are not simply expressing frustration; they are separating one issue from another, giving Trump relatively better marks on crime while punishing him on the economy and everyday prices.
House and Senate control
Congressional control lines up with that pattern. Forty-seven percent of voters favored Democratic control of the House of Representatives, and 46% preferred Democratic control of the Senate. By comparison, 38% wanted Republicans to remain in charge of both chambers, while 15% were unsure.
Two-thirds of voters felt pessimistic about the state of politics in the country, and half were pessimistic about the future of the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, and democracy as a whole. Those attitudes make the midterm choice look less like a routine preference and more like a verdict on the current direction of the country.
For now, the poll points to a public ready to shift power before the 2026 midterms, with the strongest pressure landing on the economy and cost of living. Whether that desire for change turns into Democratic gains in the U.S. House of Representatives is the part voters have not answered yet.
