Typhoon Champi strengthened again on October 19 to level 16 with gusts above level 17 after weakening overnight. At 1 PM, the storm was centered at about 14.3 degrees north latitude and 138.5 degrees east longitude, more than 2000 km southeast of Taiwan and about 1700 km east-southeast of Luzón in the Philippines.
The storm was moving over sea surface temperatures of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius and remained in the southern part of a subtropical high-pressure ridge. Forecasters said that setup left Champi on a west-northwest track over the next 24 hours, with intensity able to reach level 17 and gusts above that level.
Taiwan forecast split
Forecasts in the source do not point to one track. The Japanese weather agency said Champi could make landfall in Taiwan around October 24 with intensity near level 15 and gusts above level 17, while the agency meteorológica de Taiwán expected the storm to move toward the waters north of Taiwan instead of striking the island.
The agency meteorológica de Hong Kong also said Champi was expected to pass north of Taiwan before heading toward mainland China and would not make direct landfall in Taiwan. The Chinese weather agency forecast discussed in the source said the U.S. weather agency expected Champi to move north of Taiwan toward Fujian and Zhejiang.
Subtropical ridge weakens
By the evening of October 22, Champi was still maintaining intensity between level 16 and level 17 with gusts above level 17. From the night of October 22, the sea surface temperature had fallen to 27 to 28 degrees Celsius while Champi was still about 5000 km east-southeast of Taiwan.
The subtropical high-pressure ridge then weakened, and Champi gradually weakened and turned toward the northwest. That shift is what makes the forecast disagreement matter now: one set of models keeps Taiwan in the path, while another keeps the storm north of the island and closer to mainland China.
Mar del Este outlook
The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said the chance of Champi entering the northeastern East Sea was low, at 80 percent. For readers in Taiwan, the Philippines, and areas north of Taiwan, the next 24 hours are the period that will show whether Champi holds its strength while the track continues to bend northwest.
What comes next is the storm’s movement through that window, with the forecast still split between a Taiwan landfall and a path that stays north of the island.
