Amy Acton vs Vivek Ramaswamy has moved into a late-campaign stretch with Acton holding a narrow lead two weeks before Election Day. Harry Enten said on that Ramaswamy’s net rating among independents had fallen to minus 25, the lowest mark he found for a GOP gubernatorial nominee in Ohio since 2000.
Enten said the race “has flipped from Ramaswamy over to Amy Acton, who's now up by 4 points in the polls.” He also called the figure “The worst this century!” and said, “No one has ever been this low if you're a GOP gubernatorial nominee in Ohio. No one has ever been this low except for Vivek Ramaswamy.”
Ohio polling shift
Several surveys show the same direction. Bowling Green State University and YouGov found Acton ahead 50 percent to 44 percent among 1,000 likely voters surveyed from September 29 to October 9. A /SSRS poll of 760 likely voters from September 29 to October 5 put Acton up 50 percent to 42 percent, with her leading independents by 27 points.
Other surveys were closer but still tilted toward Acton. and Siena College showed her ahead 49 percent to 45 percent. Suffolk University put her lead at 9 points, and Marist found a 6-point lead among registered voters. The RealClearPolling average gives Acton a 3.5-point edge, 48.2 percent to 44.7 percent.
Independent voters in Ohio
Ramaswamy’s problem sits with independent voters, the group that can decide a close race in Ohio. Enten said his minus 25 net rating was the lowest he found for any GOP gubernatorial nominee in the state since 2000. That reading came after Big Data Poll gave Ramaswamy a 1-point lead in late September, while a co/efficient poll of 925 likely voters on October 5 and 6 put him ahead 45 percent to 43 percent.
The numbers also show how the race changed over a few weeks. Ramaswamy led by about 4 points on average in 2025 polling before the race flipped to Acton being up by 4 points. Two weeks before Election Day, the latest public surveys mostly show Acton ahead by a few points and often inside the margin of error.
Trump and Ohio
The late shift comes despite Ramaswamy beginning the race with President Donald Trump’s endorsement in a state Trump carried three times by 8 to 11 points. Republicans have held the Ohio governor’s office since 2006, when Ken Blackwell lost to Democrat Ted Strickland by more than 20 points. Mike DeWine won in 2018 and 2022, and he is now term-limited.
If Acton holds this edge through Election Day, Democrats would win the Ohio governor’s office for the first time since 2006. The key question is whether Ramaswamy can recover with independents fast enough to close the gap that Enten traced across the polling data.
