Stephen Morgan said the NOAA Washington, DC winter forecast is watching a developing Super El Niño that could become one of the strongest on record. Long-range forecasts point to the 2026–27 event as a possible standout in recent history, with winter nearing and the pattern already strengthening.
The comparison starts with two reference winters: 1997–98 and 2015–16, which are considered two of the strongest El Niño years on record. Morgan helped break down how the developing event stacks up against them, including what the atmosphere may do if the Pacific Ocean’s warm phase keeps building.
Stephen Morgan on NOAA Washington, DC winter forecast
El Niño is the Pacific Ocean’s warm phase, built on unusually warm water across the equatorial Pacific every few years. That warm water can weaken the trade winds and shift tropical rainfall eastward, which is why forecasters watch the pattern so closely when winter approaches.
Morgan appeared with Bayne Froney, Britta Merwin and Craig Herrera as the forecast was broken down for FOX Weather. The group focused on how the developing event could shape this winter’s weather pattern by nudging the jet stream.
1997–98 and 2015–16
The 1997–98 El Niño sent a huge pool of warm water surging east across the Pacific and reached all the way to South America. That event influenced fires in Indonesia and the Amazon, drought-driven crop failures in Southern Africa, and heavy rain and coastal flooding in Southern California and the southern U.S.
The 2015–16 El Niño was also very strong and featured exceptionally warm, elevated water across the Pacific. Its pattern differed from 1997–98 because less elevated water reached the coast of South America, even though both years sat among the strongest on record.
Oct. 12 satellite image
A satellite image captured on Oct. 12 showed the classic fingerprint of a powerful El Niño. The broad red band across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific represented higher-than-normal sea levels, a sign that warm water had expanded and surged eastward toward South America. Blue shades marked lower-than-normal sea levels, while white indicated near-average conditions.
For readers in the southern U.S., northern U.S. and Canada, the practical takeaway is the same one forecasters are tracking now: El Niño can alter winter by shifting the jet stream and changing rainfall and temperature patterns. The latest long-range forecasts say the 2026–27 event could rank among the strongest in recent history, and that is the benchmark to watch as the season develops.
