Larry Sabato says Donald Trump’s usefulness on the campaign trail now comes down to one narrow target: the super MAGAs. With about 36 million votes already cast, he said late-stage speeches are reaching voters who have already started locking in their choice.
Larry Sabato and Trump
Sabato said Trump does not have a good message to sell, and he put Republicans in the same bucket. He said, “he really doesn't have a good message to sell, and his fellow Republicans don't either.”
He added, “The war in Iran, high gas prices, high food prices, corruption, you know, those things tend not to sell.” That leaves Trump with a smaller audience on the trail than a national campaign would usually want, especially when so many ballots are already in.
36 Million Votes Already Cast
“They do focus,” Sabato said when asked about voters locking in. He followed that with, “there are about 36 million votes already locked in. They've been cast.”
That voting total gives his argument its force. The campaign is not starting from zero, so the remaining lift has to come from turnout rather than persuasion alone. Sabato said Trump’s problem is the same one Joe Biden faces in trying to sell people on the idea that the economy is great.
Super MAGAs And Republican Seats
Sabato said, “Trump's only usefulness right now on the campaign trail is to energize the super MAGAs.” He also said some MAGAs are not voting, which makes the base narrower than it looks from the outside.
That is why he framed Trump’s best path as a turnout play, not a broad appeal play. “His only chance to save some of these seats for the Republicans is to get an enormous turnout among that core group of super MAGAs,” Sabato said, adding that the strategy might work in “a couple or three deeply red states.”
He also said money is helping in some places, but not driving the election overall. “I think it's making some difference in some places,” he said, before adding, “Our system is an outrage, but it really doesn't drive elections as much as people think.” Sabato said money can matter more when it is spent in a section of a state like Texas where 80% of the population may be MAGA or super MAGA, but he said the broader contest is still being shaped by voters who are inching away in deeply red states, only by inches despite the blue wave.
The practical takeaway is blunt: if Trump can still move anything, it is not the middle. It is the small slice of the base that already leans hardest his way, in places where turnout among that group can still protect Republican seats.
