Judah Cohen said the El Niño November weather forecast now points to an exceptionally early polar vortex disruption in the first week of November. If the winds surrounding the vortex reverse around Nov. 4 or 5, it would be the earliest breakdown and displacement on record dating back to the 1950s.
Judah Cohen on the winds
The MIT research scientist said, "It is one of the most, if not the most surprising events or behaviors I have ever witnessed from the polar vortex." He also said, "For weather and climate records, that is really unheard of" if the reversal happens around Nov. 4 or 5.
The latest forecasts show the winds surrounding the polar vortex slowing dramatically and potentially reversing direction completely by the first week of November. That timing would beat the earlier seasonal record of around Nov. 28 by roughly three weeks.
El Niño and the Arctic
The setup stands out because during November the polar vortex is typically stable and strengthening. A strong El Niño would normally favor that steadier pattern, yet the atmosphere may be showing the opposite: large-scale pools of warm air have drifted north and propagated vertically through the atmosphere.
Scientists call those pools of warm air Rossby Waves. When they crash into the polar vortex, they can weaken it and make it sag. A sudden stratospheric warming can raise temperatures as much as 50 to 70 degrees in a couple of days high in the sky, and that kind of change can alter the circulation above the Arctic in the stratosphere, 10 to 30 miles above Earth.
New England and winter
When the polar vortex weakens, stretches, or splits into separate blobs, it can reorganize the jet stream and send pockets of frigid air south and toward the surface. New England is specifically named as a region to watch, but the forecast does not promise the same outcome everywhere because cold-air outbreaks depend on the jet stream.
The next sign to watch is simple: whether the winds surrounding the polar vortex actually reverse around Nov. 4 or 5. If they do, winter pattern changes could start to take shape from there, with New England among the places most likely to feel the shift first.
