FOX Sports' Week 9 lean points to USC as a live bet to cover against Ohio State, even after the Trojans' embarrassing loss to Wisconsin. The logic is simple enough: Ohio State must adjust after losing Julian Sayin for the season, while USC's offense has been much stronger at the Coliseum under Lincoln Riley.
That does not mean USC suddenly becomes a safe side. The Trojans' defense has enough weak spots to keep Ohio State in the game, but the market may be asking a little too much of a Buckeyes attack that is now changing at quarterback. In a matchup built around momentum, timing and home-field comfort, USC has enough offensive juice to stay inside the number.
Why USC can still be dangerous at the Coliseum
The best case for USC is rooted in what it has done at home. Jayden Maiava has completed 72% of his passes at the Coliseum, and USC's production there has been far better than on the road, where that figure drops to 59%. Under Lincoln Riley, the Trojans are much easier to trust when they are playing in a rhythm on their own field.
That matters in a game like this because Ohio State's defensive numbers suggest room for USC to move the ball if the Trojans protect their quarterback and avoid empty possessions. The Buckeyes are 98th in yards per rush, 125th in yards before contact and 116th in points per drive. Those are not the numbers of a defense that will simply smother an opponent and make the game disappear early.
Ohio State's quarterback change opens the door
The other part of the betting case comes from Ohio State's offense. During the Buckeyes' win against Indiana, Julian Sayin was lost for the season, and before Week 9 the team was preparing to start a new quarterback against USC after a bye week. That is a major adjustment, even for a program with Ohio State's depth and talent.
When a team is changing quarterbacks this late, the expectation is usually that the supporting cast has to carry more of the load. Jeremiah Smith gives Ohio State a genuine game-breaking threat, but the overall equation is different when the Buckeyes are still settling into a new structure at the most important position on the field.
Why the cover is the sharper angle
USC's last outing was ugly, with the loss to Wisconsin and a performance that produced seven points and -17 rushing yards. On form alone, that would be hard to trust. But betting the spread is not the same as backing a full turnaround, and the line between the two can matter a lot in a Week 9 game like this.
Ohio State can still win. That is not really the argument. The stronger case is that USC's home offense, combined with the uncertainty around the Buckeyes' quarterback situation, gives the Trojans a realistic path to keep this within reach. If USC can make the game competitive early, the home crowd and Lincoln Riley's passing game give them enough to stay inside the cover window.
That is why the recommendation is not a pick on the upset, but on the points. In a matchup with a new Ohio State quarterback, a dangerous USC passing game and enough defensive questions on both sides, USC looks like the side more likely to reward a spread play than a straight result bet.
