Cook Political Report moved Victoria Spartz’s race in Indiana’s 5th Congressional District from Likely Republican to Leans Republican on Oct. 30. The change came as Spartz still held an 8-point edge over J.D. Ford, but the district is now rated closer than it was earlier in the campaign.
Indiana’s 5th Congressional District
Spartz is seeking a fourth term, and Ford, a Democratic State Sen., is challenging her in a district northeast of Indianapolis that includes Hamilton County and reaches to Anderson, Kokomo, Marion and Muncie. Cook Political Report’s new label matters because it places the race in a narrower category than the one it used before Oct. 30.
The district’s recent history helps explain why the rating shift drew attention. Spartz won her first race in 2020 by 4.1 percentage points. After redistricting in 2022, she won the district by 22.1 points in 2022 and 18.6 points in 2024.
Quantus Insights poll
A nonpartisan Quantus Insights poll released on Oct. 28 put Spartz at 45% and Ford at 41.8%. The poll surveyed 601 likely voters from Oct. 21 to Oct. 22 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points at 95% confidence. Another 9.8% said they were undecided.
When undecided respondents were pressed, nearly half still said they were undecided. The rest leaned slightly toward Ford by four percentage points, a result that points to a tighter finish than the topline numbers alone show.
Campaign spending and polling
Other recent polls have pointed in different directions. The House Majority PAC released a poll on Oct. 21 showing 48% for a Republican candidate and 47% for a Democrat. Ford’s campaign released a poll in August showing 48% for Spartz and 46% for Ford.
Federal Election Commission totals cited through Oct. 15 show Spartz with $2.2 million in contributions and $1.9 million in spending between January 2025 and Oct. 15, 2026. Ford raised about $1.4 million and spent about $1.1 million between January 2026 and Oct. 15.
That combination of rating changes, polling spread and spending has made Indiana’s 5th Congressional District one of the seats drawing close attention in the final stretch. Whether the late movement in the rating and the polling will be enough to change the result on Election Day is the unanswered part of the race.
