The Old Farmer's Almanac has released a Christmas forecast calling for a White Christmas across the Intermountain West and the Northeast this year. The outlook arrives as forecasters watch a rapidly strengthening El Niño and a possible Polar Vortex breakdown that could send cold air into the U.S. in late November or December.
The Almanac's prediction points to winter weather in two broad regions rather than a single storm track. People in the Intermountain West and the Northeast are the groups most directly named in the forecast.
Intermountain West and the Northeast
The Almanac did not limit the forecast to one city or one holiday weekend. It put the White Christmas call across the Intermountain West and the Northeast, which means the holiday outlook spans a wide stretch of the country and not just a few isolated snow-prone spots.
That broad reach is the part readers should watch most closely. A forecast drawn across multiple regions leaves room for localized conditions to change, but the Almanac is still pointing to holiday snow in both areas this year.
El Niño and the Polar Vortex
The competing weather signals are what make the forecast harder to read. Forecasters are monitoring a rapidly strengthening El Niño, and a Super El Niño is expected to be declared later this year.
At the same time, the Polar Vortex may break down earlier than ever and send cold air into the U.S. in late November or December. Those two patterns pull in different directions, which is why this winter could be one for the record books as Super El Niño and the Polar Vortex go head-to-head.
White Christmas forecast
The practical takeaway for readers in the Intermountain West and the Northeast is simple: the Almanac is calling for a snowy holiday, but the larger winter pattern could still shift the outcome before Christmas arrives. If the Polar Vortex pushes cold air south at the same time as the holiday forecast holds, the White Christmas call becomes more plausible; if Super El Niño dominates, warmer conditions could win out.
