Marcos Degli goes into UFC Vegas 124 as the clear betting favourite, with the market opening him at -240 for Saturday, November 7, 2026. Mitch Raposo is listed at +201, so this is a matchup where the numbers point firmly one way before the first bell.
That does not mean the fight is settled on paper. Raposo brings an 11-3-0 record into the bout, while Degli arrives at 15-3-0, and both men have recent wins behind them. Raposo defeated Allan Nascimento by unanimous decision in round 3 in his last fight, while Degli stopped Paris Moran by rear naked choke in round 2.
Why Degli is the betting favourite
The odds reflect a fighter who has looked efficient and dangerous in finishing situations. Degli’s most recent win came inside the distance, and that matters in a three-round fight where a strong start can quickly shift the shape of the contest. At 26 years old, he also enters with a slight edge in age over Raposo, who is 28.
The physical numbers also suggest a close but competitive matchup. Raposo is listed at 125 lbs, 5'5" with a 64" reach, while Degli stands 5'6" with a 67" reach. In a fight where margins matter, that extra length could influence both the striking exchanges and the way the bout unfolds at range.
Raposo has the tools to make this live
Raposo is not coming in without a case of his own. His last win over Allan Nascimento showed he can go the distance and stay composed over three rounds, and his record suggests he has enough experience to make this uncomfortable for a favourite.
The challenge is whether he can consistently deal with Degli’s pressure and variety. Betting previews often lean on recent form for a reason, and right now Degli’s finish over Paris Moran is the cleaner headline. Still, Raposo has already shown he can win a measured fight, which means the market price may not tell the whole story.
For UFC followers and bettors, that is the real appeal here. Degli is priced as the stronger side, but Raposo has the kind of record and recent result that can keep this competitive if he controls the pace. UFC Vegas 124 gives both fighters a chance to confirm what the odds suggest, or change the conversation entirely.
