U.S. weather today: severe storms in the Lower Mississippi Valley, gales brewing on the Great Lakes, and a quick-hit Pacific Northwest soaker

A dynamic mid-October setup is spreading high-impact weather across several U.S. regions this weekend. Severe thunderstorms target parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley today (Saturday, October 18), a gale event builds on the Great Lakes into Sunday (October 19), and a brief atmospheric river brushes the Pacific Northwest with heavy rain before sliding inland. Farther south and west, pockets of early-season heat linger in interior California and the Southwest.

Today’s highest risks: Arkansas–Louisiana–Texas into the Ozarks

A potent disturbance and sharpening cold front will fire strong to severe storms from midday through late evening across eastern Texas, Arkansas, northern Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, and southern Missouri. The environment supports damaging straight-line winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes, especially in storms that can stay discrete ahead of the main line.

Timing (local):

• 1–4 p.m.: Storms develop near the Red River and Ozarks.

• 4–10 p.m.: Peak severe window as storms consolidate into lines and bows, racing east.

• After 10 p.m.: Gradual weakening as the complex moves toward the Lower Mississippi Delta.

What to do: Keep multiple ways to receive warnings, charge devices before the evening round, and avoid driving through water-covered roads during downpours.

Great Lakes: Sunday gales, big waves, and lakeshore hazards

As the front clears the Midwest, strong cold advection on Sunday drives gale-force winds across portions of Lakes Michigan, Erie, and Huron. Forecast guidance points to 35–40 kt gusts on the open waters with 8–13 ft waves possible on the eastern basins by Sunday afternoon and night. Lakeshore communities—particularly along exposed stretches of west and north-facing coasts—should expect hazardous surf, minor splashover, and difficult pier conditions.

Mariners: Plan for Gale Watches/Warnings and Small Craft Advisories from Sunday morning into late night. Harbor plans, mooring checks, and altered routes are advised.

Pacific Northwest: quick, efficient soaking today

A narrow, fast-moving atmospheric river crosses coastal Washington and Oregon today, delivering 1–4 inches of rain in roughly 12–18 hours, with orographic boosts on the Olympics and North Cascades. Freezing levels start high, then lower as the plume passes; travel impacts center on ponding, reduced visibility, and slick mountain passes late tonight as cooler air filters in.

Heads-up: Urban corridors from Seattle–Tacoma down through Portland can expect bouts of heavy rain and gusts. Hydro issues should be localized given the event’s speed, but leaf-clogged drains can amplify street flooding.

Heavy rain footprint: where flash flooding is possible

Moisture convergence along and ahead of the front supports bands of torrential rain from northeast Texas into Arkansas and southern Missouri today and the Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes tonight into Sunday morning. Short-duration 1–2 inch bursts could overwhelm poor drainage. If you live in a flood-prone spot, move vehicles to higher ground and keep culverts and street grates clear of leaves.

Tropics & warm pockets: monitoring, not panicking

The Atlantic basin has no named storms at 8 a.m. ET today, but forecasters are watching disturbances that may bring gusty squalls to parts of the Caribbean late Sunday into early week. It’s the late-season wiggle: low confidence on development, high confidence on brief, blustery showers for the islands.

Across the interior West, temperatures run well above average in favored valleys and deserts. Heat advisories have been posted episodically this week for parts of California’s Central Valley and adjacent foothills. If you’re working or recreating outside, peak stress arrives mid-to-late afternoon; hydrate early, take shade breaks, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Key travel impacts (Sat–Sun)

• Air: Thunderstorms in DFW–Little Rock–Memphis corridors may trigger delays; wind shifts and rain bands could slow operations in SEA/PDX today and ORD/DTW/CLE Sunday.

• Road: Hydroplaning risk under the heaviest Southern storms today; fallen branches and spot power outages possible Sunday near the Great Lakes; slick leaf-strewn streets in the Northwest during heavier rain.

• Marine: Gales on the Great Lakes Sunday; small craft should remain in port or hug protected waters.

Planning guide (local time)

• South/Central U.S. (AR/LA/east TX):

  • 2–10 p.m. Sat: Primary severe window; shelter plans and alerting apps on.

• Pacific Northwest (WA/OR):

  • Through tonight: Heaviest rain; watch for urban ponding and breezy headlands.

• Great Lakes:

  • Sun morning–late Sun night: Gale conditions; dangerous piers and breakwalls, rough ferry crossings.

Bottom line

• Today (Sat, Oct 18): Severe storms from east TX through AR/LA/MO; soaking rain WA/OR; warm pockets persist in the interior West.

• Sunday (Oct 19): Great Lakes gales and choppy nearshore waters; the front pushes rain and gusts into the Ohio Valley and Northeast with a cooler turn behind it.

• Early week: Quieter for many, but stay tuned for additional Western Pacific moisture later in the month and a continued watch on late-season tropical wrinkles.

If you need a city-by-city forecast for the next 48 hours—plus wind gusts and “what to wear” tips—share your locations and I’ll map them to this setup.