Nvidia’s China AI GPU Market Share Drops from 95% to Zero
Nvidia’s dominance in China’s AI GPU market has significantly declined, falling from approximately 95% to zero. This dramatic shift was highlighted by CEO Jensen Huang during an interview at Citadel Securities’ Future of Global Markets 2025 event in New York on October 6.
Nvidia’s Retreat from the Chinese Market
During the interview, Huang stated, “At the moment, we are 100% out of China,” underscoring the impact of US export controls on the company’s performance. This marks the first time Nvidia publicly quantified its exit from the Chinese market.
Impact of Export Controls
Nvidia’s data center GPU line has been particularly affected by these restrictions, which began rolling out in October 2022. The company’s A800 and H800 products became noncompliant with export rules in 2023. Additionally, the newer H20 design has faced its own licensing challenges.
- Market share decline: From 95% to 0%
- Export restrictions imposed since: October 2022
- Affected products: A800, H800, H20
Financial Ramifications
China was previously a substantial market for Nvidia, accounting for 20% to 25% of its data center revenue. This segment generated over $41 billion, reflecting a 56% year-over-year increase. However, as Huang noted, the company is now anticipating no revenue from the Chinese market.
Future Projections and Market Dynamics
Nvidia’s forecasts indicate that they are currently assuming a 0% market share in China. Huang acknowledged that any future revenue from China would be considered a bonus. The tightening of export controls is reshaping both demand and supply chains in the AI sector.
- Projected revenue from China: 0%
- Revenue contribution from data center segment: Over $41 billion
- Year-over-year increase: 56%
Shifts in the Chinese AI Landscape
The ongoing restrictions have compelled Chinese hyperscalers and AI labs to seek domestic solutions or alternative hardware. This shift aims to localize compute infrastructure, a trend Huang warned could lead to the development of competitive substitutes.
While Huang expressed hopes for a future return to the Chinese market, Nvidia has effectively written off this territory for now. The company’s cautious stance reflects the broader challenges posed by geopolitical tensions and market transformations within the AI sector.
