Tropical Storm Melissa Threatens with Hurricane Potential and Uncertain Path
Tropical Storm Melissa has emerged in the Caribbean Sea, signaling that the Atlantic hurricane season continues to pose threats. As it strengthens over warm waters, the storm is expected to bring heavy rain and strong winds, particularly affecting Hispaniola, which encompasses the Dominican Republic and Haiti.
Tropical Storm Melissa: Current Status
As of Tuesday afternoon, Melissa was located approximately 300 miles south of Haiti, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. The National Hurricane Center anticipates that the storm could reach hurricane status by Saturday, though its maximum strength remains uncertain. A hurricane watch is currently in effect for parts of Haiti, while Jamaica is under a tropical storm watch.
Potential Impact Areas
- Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti): Potential for significant flooding and mudslides.
- Puerto Rico: Likely to experience heavy rain.
- Jamaica: At risk for flash flooding.
- Mainland U.S.: Minimal impacts expected, mainly rough surf and rip currents along the East Coast.
Heavy rainfall could exceed one foot in some regions of Hispaniola, creating a significant risk for flash flooding and landslides due to the combination of torrential rain and mountainous terrain. Other areas, including Jamaica and Puerto Rico, may also face considerable rainfall.
Forecast and Potential Paths
The exact trajectory of Melissa remains unpredictable. Two primary scenarios are being monitored:
- First Scenario: The storm may strengthen and move northward closer to Hispaniola by the weekend, becoming a Category 1 hurricane.
- Second Scenario: Melissa could drift westward toward Central America, potentially affecting Nicaragua or Honduras next week.
In the second scenario, the northern Caribbean may still encounter several days of unsettled weather, yet overall rainfall and flooding risks would be lower.
Risks for the U.S.
While the likelihood of a direct hit on the mainland United States is low, Florida could face consequences if Melissa maintains weaker strength and changes its northward trajectory. If this occurs, Cuba and parts of the Bahamas might also be affected.
The Atlantic hurricane season is officially set to conclude on November 30, although storms can still develop after this date. As Tropical Storm Melissa evolves, its path, strength, and potential hazards will become clearer. The ongoing pattern of warmer ocean temperatures provides the ingredients for storms to rapidly intensify, which has been observed multiple times this season.
