Dominion Energy outlines surging demand, rate projections and early-2026 offshore wind power as scrutiny intensifies

October 22, 2025 — Dominion Energy moved back into the spotlight today on two fronts: fresh long-range projections that detail how rapidly electricity demand is climbing in Virginia—and what that could mean for rates—and new construction milestones on the company’s 2.6-gigawatt Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project, which is on track to deliver first power in early 2026. At the same time, a new health-impact analysis from environmental advocates is challenging plans for a separate gas plant in South Carolina, underscoring how every piece of the utility’s buildout is drawing attention.

Dominion Energy’s long-range view: faster load growth, higher bills if trends persist

Dominion’s latest planning update models an unusually fast demand curve, driven by data centers, electrification and population growth. Key takeaways:

• Load trajectory: Annual electricity use is modeled to rise roughly 5% per year on average, with total demand expected to double by 2045 if current trends hold.

• Customer bills (illustrative): Using the company’s methodology, the average residential bill is projected around $255/month by 2035 and $268/month by 2045. Under a statewide methodology favored by regulators, comparable figures rise to roughly $308 and $381. Dominion stresses these are projections, not guarantees, and that cost allocations shift over time.

• Resource mix to meet growth: Over the next 20 years, Dominion sketches ~33 GW of new capacity, with solar (~53%) as the largest share, followed by natural gas (~25%), offshore wind (~10%), battery storage (~6%), and small modular nuclear (~6%). The utility views a multi-source portfolio as necessary to maintain reliability while load accelerates.

• Policy tension: A scenario that retires all gas plants by 2045—consistent with Virginia’s clean-energy mandate—appears challenging in the company’s modeling without substantially more nuclear and storage, raising cost and timing concerns that will be debated before regulators.

The filing arrives amid tighter expectations from state regulators for how integrated resource plans are built and compared, ensuring apples-to-apples analysis across fuels and policy pathways.

Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind: foundations in, first power targeted for early 2026

Out at sea, construction on Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) has cleared important hurdles:

• Foundations: Crews have completed installation of all 176 monopile foundations within the seasonal window set to protect migrating whales.

• Cabling and substations: Deep-water export cables are in place; near-shore cable work and offshore substations continue in parallel.

• Turbines and vessel logistics: Turbine installation is underway, supported by Charybdis, the first U.S.-built offshore wind turbine installation vessel compliant with federal coastal shipping rules.

• Timeline: Dominion is guiding to first power in Q1 2026, with full project completion by late 2026, keeping the nation’s largest offshore wind farm on a two-stage delivery track.

While national politics have injected uncertainty into parts of the offshore wind sector this fall, CVOW’s schedule, permitting and supply chain are currently positioned to keep momentum.

New pressure point: health concerns around the proposed Canadys gas plant

Separate from Virginia proceedings, a newly released analysis commissioned by environmental advocates projects added particulate pollution and healthcare costs tied to a proposed methane-fired plant at Canadys, South Carolina, planned by the local public utility with Dominion participation. The findings argue that the project’s emissions would affect millions of residents across multiple counties and into neighboring states. Expect this to feature prominently in upcoming public comments and permit reviews, alongside the utility’s reliability case for new firm capacity.

Earnings and regulatory calendar

• Earnings call: Dominion’s Q3 2025 results and investor call are slated for Friday, October 31, 11:00 a.m. ET. Management typically updates on CVOW, capital spending, rate proceedings and guidance.

• Regulatory dockets: Multiple cases are active or pending before Virginia’s State Corporation Commission, including project-specific approvals consistent with the utility’s clean-energy filing.

What it means for customers and investors

• Bills vs. buildout: The planning numbers are not rate cases, but they frame the trade-offs: fast load growth requires more steel in the ground, and the portfolio choice—how much solar and storage, how much wind, how much gas backup, whether to add nuclear—will influence future bills.

• Reliability and diversity: Dominion is signaling a both/and strategy—renewables and storage ramping hard, paired with firm resources as insurance while demand soars. That posture will face legal, environmental and political tests in coming months.

• Offshore wind execution risk: With foundations done and first power targeted in early 2026, the execution story shifts to turbine installation pace, weather windows, and grid integration—each a swing factor for schedule and cost.

• Policy headwinds: Sector-wide debates over offshore wind and fossil-fuel permitting can change timelines at the margins; CVOW’s current cadence provides a partial buffer but not immunity.

Quick reference: Dominion Energy’s near-term milestones

 Dominion Energy is juggling a rare combination of surging demand, massive clean-energy construction, and heightened scrutiny of gas backup—all at once. Today’s filings and construction updates preview the negotiations ahead: how to balance affordability, reliability and climate mandates as Virginia’s grid races to keep up.