Tropical Storm Melissa closing in on hurricane strength, putting Jamaica and Hispaniola at high flood risk

Tropical Storm Melissa is tightening and slowing in the central Caribbean, a dangerous combination that points to rapid strengthening this weekend and a prolonged, life-threatening flood threat for Jamaica, southern Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Forecasters say Melissa is likely to reach major-hurricane status within days as it crawls over very warm waters, with impacts beginning well before any potential eye approaches land.

Melissa forecast: track, timing, and intensity

Recent updates indicate Melissa is hovering southeast of Jamaica and drifting generally northwest at only a few miles per hour. A slow forward speed means rainbands will continue to train over the same locations through the weekend. Guidance favors additional strengthening today and Sunday, with the storm becoming a hurricane and then intensifying quickly over exceptionally warm Caribbean waters. A track near or just south of Jamaica is plausible into early next week, followed by a threat to eastern Cuba while the system remains over high-octane ocean heat.

Confidence is highest on heavy rain and flooding regardless of the exact track. Wind impacts will scale with how close the core passes to Jamaica and the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. Even if the center skirts these areas, hurricane-force gusts are possible in stronger squalls as the storm intensifies.

Key facts at a glance (subject to change)

• Location: roughly 160–180 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica

• Maximum sustained winds: near 65–70 mph (just shy of hurricane strength)

• Movement: slow northwest drift around 2–4 mph

• Central pressure: around the low-990s mb

• Wind field: tropical-storm-force winds extending more than 100 miles from the center

Note: Values reflect the latest public advisories early Saturday and will be updated frequently as the core consolidates.

Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican Republic: primary hazards

Extreme rainfall and landslides. Melissa’s slow motion is the red flag. Totals of 15–25 inches are possible in the hardest-hit terrain of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, with localized peaks higher where bands stall. This magnitude of rain over steep slopes raises the risk of flash flooding, river rises, mudslides and road washouts.

Damaging wind and power disruptions. If Melissa becomes a hurricane while still near Jamaica or the Tiburon Peninsula, hurricane-force gusts could down trees and power lines, with widespread outages possible. Structures not built for hurricane winds may sustain roof and siding damage near the core.

Coastal impacts. Large, battering waves and a persistent onshore flow will produce dangerous surf, rip currents and coastal flooding, especially along south- and southwest-facing shores. Surge heights will depend on the storm’s exact track and intensity at closest approach.

Watches, warnings and preparedness

Tropical storm alerts are in effect for parts of Jamaica, with hurricane alerts posted for portions of southern Haiti. These may expand or upgrade with little lead time as the core strengthens. Residents in exposed areas should finalize preparations today: clear drains, secure loose outdoor items, stage emergency supplies, and identify higher ground in case rapid rises in water require a quick move.

Travelers should anticipate flight disruptions across Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican Republic beginning this weekend, with potential airport closures if sustained winds reach dangerous thresholds.

What could change—and what won’t

Intensity: The environment favors bursts of strengthening. Brief episodes of wind shear could slow that process, but the underlying ocean heat content argues for a stronger storm by late weekend.

Track: Small wobbles matter. A 30–50 mile shift in the core could mean the difference between severe wind damage along Jamaica’s southern coast versus mainly flooding rain. Regardless of those wobbles, multi-day heavy rain is a near-lock across southern Haiti and Jamaica.

Beyond the weekend: Early-week scenarios bring Melissa near or into eastern Cuba while remaining strong. Interests from Jamaica to Cuba should monitor frequent updates and be ready for extended impacts given the storm’s slow pace.

Practical timeline (local times vary)

• Today (Sat): Bands intensify; wind and seas build; flooding begins in southern Haiti and Jamaica.

• Tonight–Sun: Likely hurricane; worst conditions near Jamaica’s south coast and Haiti’s Tiburon region; power outages and landslides increase.

• Mon–Tue: Threat shifts toward Cuba; lingering bands keep flooding risks elevated in Jamaica and Hispaniola.

Tropical Storm Melissa

Melissa’s biggest danger is long-duration, extreme rainfall compounded by strengthening winds as it nears hurricane status. The storm’s slow crawl means impacts will not be brief. If you’re in Jamaica, southern Haiti, or the southern Dominican Republic, treat all flood alerts seriously, stay away from surge-prone coasts, and be prepared for extended interruptions to power and transport as conditions deteriorate this weekend.