NJ governor polls: Mikie Sherrill holds a slim edge over Jack Ciattarelli as early voting begins

With in-person early voting underway this weekend (Saturday, Oct. 25), the New Jersey governor’s race between Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli is within single digits and tightening in the final stretch. Fresh polling in the last two weeks shows Sherrill leading by a small margin that often sits inside the margin of error, while interest and turnout efforts accelerate across suburban swing counties and core urban strongholds.

NJ governor polls: the latest snapshot

Multiple reputable statewide surveys conducted in mid- to late October converge on the same basic picture: Sherrill narrowly ahead, Ciattarelli within striking distance, and only a sliver of undecided voters left.

Recent publicly released numbers

• Oct. 22 survey of likely voters: Sherrill 50%, Ciattarelli 45% (±4.7).

• Oct. 17 academic poll: Sherrill 52%, Ciattarelli 45% (±3–4).

• Oct. 15 statewide poll: Sherrill 50%, Ciattarelli 44% (±2.9).

• Late-September poll: 43%–43% tie among registered voters, with double-digit undecided.

Method notes: All four used standard likely-voter or registered-voter screens, live callers or mixed-mode sampling, and typical statewide sample sizes (≈700–1,200). Differences in mode and screen explain some variance, but the trend line points to a close race with a modest Sherrill advantage.

Where the Sherrill–Ciattarelli race is being decided

Independents and soft partisans: One late-October survey measured independents roughly 49–40 for Sherrill, but within error; others find a narrower split. Movement among soft partisans—especially suburban Republicans uneasy with national politics and Democrats frustrated over affordability—remains a live variable.

Gender and education gaps: The same late-October polling shows a pronounced gender gap (women strongly pro-Sherrill, men leaning Ciattarelli) and a familiar education divide (college-educated voters breaking Sherrill; non-college voters tilting Ciattarelli). These gaps shape county-level math in Morris, Somerset, Burlington, and parts of Ocean and Monmouth.

Racial coalitions: White voters lean slightly to Ciattarelli; nonwhite voters favor Sherrill by large margins. Turnout in diverse, high-density municipalities—particularly in Essex, Hudson, Union, and Mercer—will determine whether those preferences translate into banked votes.

Issue salience: Affordability, taxes, and jobs remain the top trio. Polls find a near draw on the economy and budget questions, a Sherrill edge on health care, and a Ciattarelli edge on crime and safety. Transportation and school quality are also competitive; small shifts here can swing late deciders.

Early voting and the ground game

In-person early voting opened statewide on Oct. 25 and runs through next weekend ahead of Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 4. Campaigns are chasing two goals:

1. Bank the base: Lock in reliable supporters before late news cycles introduce volatility.

2. Target low-propensity voters: Use door-knocks, ballot-cure operations, and text banking to lift participation in precincts that historically sag in off-year elections.

Because the undecided share is now small, field operations matter as much as persuasion. Expect both campaigns to flood swing suburbs during weekday commutes and concentrate weekend surges in dense apartment corridors and shore-adjacent towns.

Reading the polls: three takeaways

1) Margin vs. map: A five-point statewide lead can be fragile if it rests on uneven turnout. The GOP path relies on shrinking Democratic margins in places like Elizabeth, Paterson, and parts of Newark while posting robust numbers in outer-ring suburbs and exurbs. Democrats, conversely, need strong urban performance plus college-town and inner-ring suburban efficiency.

2) National crosswinds: Roughly half of likely voters tell pollsters that national politics is a major factor in their governor choice. That dynamic can cut both ways: it may energize blue-leaning metros while nudging some tax-sensitive suburbanites toward the GOP.

3) The undecided sliver: With only 2–4% still uncommitted in most late polls, late-breaking news may shift more votes by changing who turns out than by changing minds. Weather on Election Day, commute-hour get-out-the-vote, and ballot-cure speed could create the decisive edge.

Trendline and scenarios

• Sherrill holds 3–7 pts: A steady, suburban-driven cushion paired with efficient urban turnout produces a narrow but clear win.

• Ciattarelli closes inside 2 pts: Late emphasis on affordability, a small advantage among men and non-college voters, and stronger-than-expected surges in exurban counties pull it to a photo finish.

• Polling miss: If likely-voter screens underestimate first-time or low-propensity participation in either coalition, county-level surprises become plausible—especially in mixed suburbs where ticket-splitting persists.

As of Sunday, Oct. 26, the NJ governor polls show Mikie Sherrill ahead by low single digits over Jack Ciattarelli, with early voting in progress and only a narrow band of undecided voters left on the board. The outcome now hinges less on persuasion than on precision: where each side finds a few thousand extra votes—and whether those votes are already in the box before Election Day.