Hurricane Melissa targets Jamaica: Category 4, slow-moving, and potentially historic

Bassyonni

ago 3 hours

Hurricane Melissa

Hurricane Melissa intensified to a Category 4 on Sunday night (Oct. 26, 2025) and is crawling toward Jamaica, with forecasters warning of catastrophic flooding, landslides, destructive winds and life-threatening storm surge. The core is expected to pass near or over Jamaica Monday night into Tuesday, with only slow weakening—if any—before landfall. Officials have activated shelters, urged evacuations from flood-prone areas, and closed major airports as preparations accelerate.

Where Hurricane Melissa is now—and what’s next

Intensity: Category 4; maximum sustained winds around 140 mph (225 km/h), with the potential to briefly reach Category 5.
Motion: Very slow, roughly 3–5 mph (5–8 km/h)—a key reason rainfall and wind damage could be prolonged.
Track (confidence high): Near/over Jamaica Mon night–Tue, then across southeastern Cuba Tue night–Wed, and toward the southeastern Bahamas/Turks & Caicos midweek.
Watches/Warnings: Jamaica under hurricane warning; surrounding regions under watches that may be upgraded as the track evolves.

Why the risk is extreme: Slow movers unload enormous rain totals and keep dangerous onshore flow pounding the same coastline for many hours.

Threat breakdown for Jamaica

Rain & inland flooding (highest-impact)

15–30 inches common; isolated 40 inches in upslope/mountain areas.
Expect flash floods, river flooding, and major landslides, especially along saturated slopes and in communities below steep terrain.

Wind (widespread destructive)

Core winds capable of devastating structural damage, extensive treefall, and multi-day power outages.
Hurricane-force gusts spread well beyond the eye as rainbands train over the island.

Storm surge & coastal impacts (life-threatening)

9–13 feet of surge possible in bays and inlets along the south and southeast coasts, magnified by wave run-up.
Coastal roads may become impassable; port and airport facilities face significant disruption.

Preparedness checklist (last 12–24 hours)

Evacuate if told to do so. If you live in a low-lying/coastal or known flood/landslide zone, relocate to official shelters or higher, safer ground before tropical-storm-force winds arrive.
Power & comms: Fully charge devices; keep battery banks ready. Prepare for multi-day outages.
Water & food: Minimum 3 days of potable water (at least 1 gallon per person per day), nonperishable food, and essential meds.
Secure property: Clear drains/gullies, move vehicles from flood routes, tie down tanks/roofing sheets, bring in outdoor items.
Documents & go-bag: IDs, prescriptions, cash, basic first aid, flashlights, and radios in waterproof bags.
Road safety: Do not attempt to drive through floodwaters; a vehicle can be swept away in 12–18 inches of moving water.

Timing guide for Jamaica (subject to small shifts)

Mon morning–afternoon: Outer bands increase; tropical-storm-force winds arrive along exposed coasts; first flash-flood issues begin.
Mon night–Tue: Peak impacts as the core nears/comes ashore—hurricane winds, extreme rainfall, landslides, and dangerous surge on south/southeast shores.
Tue night–Wed: Gradual improvement from west to east, but flooding/river crests and blocked roads likely persist.

After Jamaica: who’s next

Southeastern Cuba: Risk of major wind and flooding Tuesday night into Wednesday, with damaging surge along south-facing coasts.
Southeastern Bahamas/Turks & Caicos: Increasing winds, squalls, and coastal hazards midweek. Track adjustments may fine-tune exact impacts.

Context: why Melissa could be historic

Melissa’s combination of intense winds, very slow forward speed, and track aimed at Jamaica’s mountainous terrain raises the ceiling for damage. Even small jogs in track will not change the fundamental hazards: feet of rain, prolonged hurricane-force gusts, and surge funneled into vulnerable bays.

Stay informed—safely

This is a rapidly developing situation. Rely on official guidance from national meteorological and disaster-response agencies and local authorities. If you are in a warned area, treat evacuation and shelter instructions as time-sensitive. For loved ones abroad, keep calls/texts brief to preserve networks during peak impact.

Developing story: Forecasts and local directives will update frequently as Melissa approaches. If you are in Jamaica’s at-risk zones, complete preparations and move to safety now.