Hurricane Melissa track: Category 5 core scraping Jamaica tonight before turning toward Cuba and the SE Bahamas

Hurricane Melissa has reached Category 5 intensity and is crawling so slowly that its track is more like a grinding stall near Jamaica than a pass-by. The center is expected to move near or over Jamaica tonight into early Tuesday (Oct. 27–28), then bend north and northeast toward southeastern Cuba late Tuesday and the southeastern Bahamas midweek. Because the forward speed is only a few miles per hour, small wobbles along the track will have outsized impact on where the worst eyewall winds and surge occur.

Hurricane Melissa track forecast at a glance

• Current status (Mon, Oct. 27, afternoon/evening ET): Category 5; maximum sustained winds estimated 170–175 mph; motion west-northwest ~3–5 mph; center just south to southwest of Kingston, Jamaica.

• Tonight–Tuesday morning (Oct. 27–28): Eyewall brushes or crosses Jamaica. Track wobbles possible; regardless of exact landfall, expect catastrophic wind, life-threatening storm surge, and extreme rainfall.

• Tuesday afternoon–night (Oct. 28): Gradual northward turn; core approaches southeastern Cuba. Some weakening likely after prolonged land interaction, but major-hurricane impacts remain probable.

• Wednesday–Thursday (Oct. 29–30): Track arcs northeast across or near the southeastern Bahamas/Turks and Caicos with dangerous wind and flooding.

• Late week: Gradual acceleration away from the western Caribbean; exact intensity beyond midweek depends on how long the core spends over land vs. very warm water.

Note: Hazardous conditions extend well outside the track line. Do not focus on the center point alone.

Why the Melissa track is so dangerous for Jamaica

• Snail-pace movement: At 3–5 mph, the same parishes will endure hours of eyewall or feeder-band battering, pushing rainfall totals locally past 30–40 inches and driving prolonged surge into bays and inlets on the storm-facing coasts.

• Track wobbles: A 10–20 mile shift in the center means the difference between the inner eyewall scraping the shoreline versus just offshore—both are destructive, but eyewall passage compounds wind damage and surge.

• Topography: Jamaica’s steep terrain accelerates runoff and landslides along the track corridor, even if the formal “cone” later bends north.

County-by-county style guidance for Jamaica (adapt as announced locally)

• Southeast & Kingston Metro: Prepare for extreme winds, rapid gully rises, and structural damage. If officials advised evacuation from surge-prone zones, move now while it’s still safe.

• Northeast Coast & Bays: Storm surge and battering waves are likely where onshore flow aligns with local inlets. Elevated ground or official shelters are safer than coastal homes.

• Interior Highlands/Blue Mountains: Landslide risk rises with every additional hour of heavy rain. Avoid slopes, ravines, and known slide areas.

Timing guide (ET and UK time)

Schedules subject to change with track wobbles.

Track beyond Jamaica: Cuba and the SE Bahamas

As Melissa pivots north then northeast, the forecast track brings the core across or very near southeastern Cuba late Tuesday, then toward the southeastern Bahamas/Turks and Caicos Wednesday–Thursday. Even if Melissa weakens somewhat over land, major-hurricane hazards—damaging wind, surge in onshore-flow zones, and flash flooding—remain likely along the projected path.

Practical tips if you’re in the track

• Shelter strategy: Choose an interior, windowless room on a non-flood-prone level. Helmets or hard hats help against debris if you have them.

• Power & water: Expect prolonged outages. Fill tubs and containers now; switch devices to low-power mode.

• After a lull: The backside of the eyewall can be equally severe. Stay inside until local authorities confirm it’s safe.

• Flood reality: Just 6–12 inches of moving water can sweep a vehicle away; roadbeds may be washed out beneath opaque floodwater.

What could change the forecast track

• Steering currents: A weaker or delayed turn north keeps the core hugging Jamaica longer, amplifying damage; an earlier turn could spare some areas from the full eyewall.

• Land interaction: A prolonged scrape across Jamaica or Cuba can lower intensity, but hazards remain extreme due to size, surge set-up, and rainfall footprint.

• Internal eyewall cycles: Category 5 hurricanes can undergo eyewall replacement cycles, briefly altering wind distribution and jogs in motion.

the Hurricane Melissa track

• Jamaica: Catastrophic conditions are imminent tonight into Tuesday along the current track.

• Next in line: Southeastern Cuba late Tuesday and the southeastern Bahamas/Turks and Caicos midweek, with life-threatening hazards regardless of modest intensity changes.

• Action: If you’ve been told to evacuate surge zones, go now. Everyone else: complete prep and shelter in place before winds become dangerous.