Hurricane Melissa intensifies to Category 5 on Jamaica’s doorstep; life-threatening winds, flooding and surge expected

Hurricane Melissa has exploded into a Category 5 monster and is beginning to batter Jamaica today, Monday, October 27, 2025. Forecasters warn of catastrophic wind damage, life-threatening storm surge, and torrential rainfall as the slow-moving system crawls near the island before turning north late tonight into Tuesday. Landfall or a destructive near-miss along Jamaica’s southern and eastern coasts remains possible, with conditions deteriorating rapidly through the night.

Track and timing for Jamaica

• Today (Mon.): Outer bands already producing squalls, rising surf, and flooding along low-lying coasts.

• Tonight into early Tue.: Core of the hurricane nears southern/eastern Jamaica; a wobble could mean eyewall impacts onshore.

• Tuesday: Melissa begins a gradual turn north, still close enough to deliver extreme conditions, then aims toward eastern Cuba and later the Turks and Caicos/Bahamas midweek, likely weaker than peak but still dangerous.

Melissa’s forward speed remains very slow (near walking pace), which dramatically worsens rainfall totals and prolongs damaging winds.

Expected impacts in Jamaica

Wind: Sustained winds well over 150 mph are possible where the eyewall crosses or scrapes the coast, with widespread gusts over hurricane force across eastern and southern parishes. Long-duration extreme winds can strip roofs, topple concrete power poles, snap large trees, and render roads impassable.

Storm surge: Along south- and east-facing coasts, inundation of 9–13 feet above normally dry ground is possible near and just east of the expected track, with higher waves on top. Harbors and inlets may experience violent, rapidly rising water capable of sweeping away vehicles and structures.

Rainfall and flooding: Broad swaths of 8–16 inches (200–400 mm) are likely, with isolated 20–40 inches (500–1000 mm) over windward slopes. This will trigger flash floods, mudslides, and landslides, especially in mountainous terrain and areas with saturated soils.

Power and communications: Extended, island-wide outages are likely. Some areas could remain without reliable electricity, water, or mobile service for days to weeks depending on damage and access.

Alerts, evacuations, and shelters

Mandatory and recommended evacuations have been issued for vulnerable coastal zones and flood-/landslide-prone communities, particularly around Kingston, Port Royal, St. Thomas, Portland, and St. Catherine. Hundreds of shelters are open; officials urge residents in low-lying or poorly built housing to move now while roads are still passable. Once sustained tropical-storm-force winds reach your area, emergency services may be unable to respond.

What to do right now

• Get to higher, safer ground if you are in a surge zone or near a river/stream; do not wait for water to rise.

• Shelter hard: Put distance and barriers between you and windows; use an interior hallway/room on the lowest floor not at risk of flooding.

• Power down and charge up: Fully charge phones, battery banks, and lights. Unplug non-essential electronics.

• Water and supplies: Fill bathtubs/containers; at least one gallon per person per day for 3–7 days. Stock ready-to-eat food, medications, and a first-aid kit.

• If told to evacuate, go: Bring IDs, prescriptions, cash, and important documents sealed in plastic.

• After the eye: Do not venture out if winds calm suddenly; the back side of the eyewall can return with violent gusts minutes later.

Travel, ports, and aviation

Airports may suspend operations through the peak of the storm, with widespread cancellations likely. Ports and coastal terminals are closed or in storm posture; marine interests should remain secured well inland. Expect road closures from downed trees, power lines, and debris; avoid driving into flooded areas—turn around, don’t drown.

What comes next after Jamaica

As Melissa lifts north on Tuesday, eastern Cuba faces dangerous rainfall, mudslides, and damaging winds, followed by Turks and Caicos and parts of the Bahamas midweek. While some weakening is probable after interacting with land and slightly cooler waters, the storm’s large size and slow speed mean significant impacts remain likely far from the center.

Quick readiness checklist (last-minute)

• Stow outdoor items; move vehicles to higher ground.

• Set refrigerators/freezers to the coldest setting; minimize door openings.

• Keep a whistle or air horn to signal rescuers if trapped.

• Share your shelter location with family or neighbors before communications fail.

• Use generators outdoors only, at least 20 feet from doors and windows; never run them in enclosed spaces.

Hurricane Melissa is Jamaica’s most dangerous modern-era hurricane threat, with a slow, punishing approach that maximizes wind, surge, and flood risk. Conditions will worsen quickly tonight. If you are in a vulnerable coastal or flood-prone area, relocate to higher, sturdier shelter immediately; if you are sheltering in place, be fully secured by nightfall and prepared to ride out extended outages.