Jamaica braces for Hurricane Melissa: Category 5 winds, extreme rainfall and life-threatening surge expected

Jamaica is staring down Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm poised to deliver catastrophic wind, rain and storm surge from late Monday night into Tuesday. Authorities have activated shelters nationwide, urged evacuations from flood- and surge-prone zones, and warned that conditions will deteriorate quickly as outer bands sweep across the island. With sustained winds estimated in the 160–175 mph range and a very slow forward speed, the core hazards are not only destructive gusts but also prolonged, torrential rainfall and landslides.

Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica: timing, track and what to expect

Forecast guidance keeps the hurricane’s center on a track that brings the most dangerous eyewall winds close to, or over, Jamaica late Monday night through Tuesday local time. The storm’s sluggish motion heightens risk—each hour the circulation lingers, rainfall totals and freshwater flooding potential climb.

• Greatest impact window (local/Jamaica time): Late Mon night → Tue evening

• ET reference: Late Mon night → Tue evening (same clock hours as Jamaica)

• UK (GMT) reference: Early Tue morning → late Tue night

Expect hurricane-force winds near the track of the core, with widespread power outages, structural damage to weaker buildings, and downed trees and lines. Farther from the center, squalls will deliver damaging gusts and rapid-onset flooding.

Rainfall, surge and wind: the big three threats from Hurricane Melissa

Rainfall and flooding:
Jamaica faces 15–25 inches of rainfall in many areas, with localized peaks that could exceed 30–40 inches in mountainous terrain where upslope flow wrings out bands for hours. This volume would trigger flash floods, river flooding, and landslides, particularly on saturated slopes and along narrow gullies.

Storm surge:
Onshore flow around the core will drive dangerous surge along exposed coasts—especially bays and inlets aligned with the wind—pushing water inland and piling waves atop already elevated sea levels. In worst-case onshore zones near and east of the landfall point, surge heights could reach several meters (9–13 feet), with violent wave run-up and severe coastal erosion.

Wind damage:
Sustained Category 5 winds near the inner core can strip roofs, shatter windows, topple concrete utility poles and render some structures uninhabitable. Even well inland, hurricane-force gusts are likely in the stronger bands.

Preparedness: last-minute steps before Melissa hits Jamaica

• Shelter & evacuation: If you live in a floodplain, near a river, or along the immediate coast, follow local evacuation orders. Shelters are open across all parishes; move now while roads are still passable.

• Power & comms: Fully charge phones, battery packs, lights and radios. Enable battery saver modes. Photograph important documents in case of loss.

• Water & food: At least 3 days of potable water (4+ liters per person per day) and shelf-stable food; more if you are inland and vulnerable to landslides or bridge closures.

• Home hardening: Clear drains, secure doors and roof sheeting, bring inside anything that can become airborne. Park vehicles on high ground away from trees.

• Medical needs: Prepare a go-bag with medications (7–10 days), first-aid kit, and copies of prescriptions.

• After the eye: If the eye passes overhead, do not venture out; the backside eyewall arrives abruptly with winds from the opposite direction.

Regional knock-on effects beyond Jamaica

After crossing near Jamaica, Melissa is expected to weaken somewhat but remain a formidable hurricane as it tracks toward eastern Cuba. Hazardous conditions will expand into neighboring areas, including Haiti and the Dominican Republic, where saturated soils and steep terrain make deadly landslides likely. Marine conditions across the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas will deteriorate with large, long-period swells and squalls.

Travel, power and logistics: plan for disruptions

• Airports and ports: Expect temporary closures, cancellations and extended delays through at least Tuesday; check only official advisories once communications allow.

• Roads and bridges: Flash flooding can wash out culverts and make well-traveled routes impassable. Never drive through water of unknown depth.

• Power restoration: Crews cannot work during peak winds; plan for multi-day outages where damage is severe. Keep generators outdoors, away from windows, and never in enclosed spaces.

What will determine the severity for Jamaica

Two variables will dictate outcomes:

1. Exact landfall track—small wobbles can shift the eyewall and the worst surge/wind corridor by tens of miles; and

2. Forward speed—a slower storm dramatically increases total rainfall and landslide risk. Even a modest acceleration would help limit flood maxima.

Jamaica and Hurricane Melissa

This is a historic, life-threatening hurricane for Jamaica. Treat all official warnings with the utmost urgency, complete final preparations immediately, and move to safe shelter before conditions rapidly worsen. Once Melissa’s core arrives, emergency services may be unable to respond until winds subside. Stay put, stay informed via battery radio when power fails, and be ready for a careful, daylight-only assessment once the all-clear is given.