Microsoft stock edges lower after earnings pop while UPS holds gains: real-time prices, drivers, and what’s next

Microsoft stock (MSFT) seesawed Wednesday after a headline earnings beat, while UPS (UPS) extended a post-results rally on cost cuts and better-than-feared margins. By mid-to-late afternoon (Oct. 29, ET), MSFT traded around the mid-$540s after swinging between roughly $515 and $547, and UPS hovered near $97–$98 following an early push above $98.

Microsoft stock price: Azure/AI strength vs. profit-taking

Microsoft’s fiscal Q1 update (for the July–September quarter) delivered another cloud-led beat, with Azure growth outpacing expectations and AI workloads again cited as the primary engine. The stock initially popped, then cooled as traders faded the move and rotated across mega-cap AI winners.

Why MSFT cooled after strong numbers

• “Good news, priced in.” With AI spend and Azure growth telegraphed for weeks, some funds used the print to lock gains.

• Capex and supply narratives. Heavy AI infrastructure investment remains a tailwind long term, but near-term capacity and delivery timing can inject volatility into guidance.

• Mixed macro tape. Index chop around rates and the broader tech complex limited follow-through.

Tape check (intraday, Oct. 29): MSFT fluctuated in a ~$30 range on heavy volume, recently near $542 and modestly lower on the day after an early bounce.

UPS stock price: restructuring bid gets early validation

UPS shares held onto earnings-week gains as investors weighed a turnaround plan built on deep cost cuts, network consolidation, and tighter capital allocation. Third-quarter revenue cleared the bar and adjusted EPS topped forecasts, shifting attention to 2025–26 levers such as facility footprint, automation, and mix away from lower-margin volume.

Why UPS is stabilizing near $97–$98

• Cost actions. Headcount reductions and site rationalization are flowing through the P&L faster than feared.

• Pricing/mix discipline. Management is signaling selectivity over chasing unprofitable parcels, even into peak season.

• Cautious but clearer outlook. Investors now have a cleaner line of sight to 2026 margin targets, though trade policy and big-customer insourcing remain watch items.

Tape check (intraday, Oct. 29): UPS traded around $97.4, up about +1% on continued post-print accumulation.

Side-by-side: today’s snapshot

(Prices are intraday approximations on Oct. 29, U.S. market hours.)

The bigger picture for Microsoft

• AI flywheel: Demand for Copilot, model hosting, and inference keeps folding back into Azure consumption, reinforcing the platform moat.

• Capex cadence: Billions in AI data-center spend remain the critical narrative; any color on Blackwell-era capacity and networking throughput will steer the next leg.

• Software attach: As enterprises standardize AI workflows, higher-margin software/services attached to Azure become a second engine for operating leverage.

What would push MSFT higher from here? Clean guidance on supply, accelerating enterprise Copilot adoption, and evidence that AI workloads are broadening beyond early adopters.

The bigger picture for UPS

• Network simplification: Closing or consolidating facilities and automating key hubs aims to raise utilization and cut unit costs.

• Customer mix risk: Exposure to large platform customers and evolving de minimis/tariff regimes could swing volumes; management is emphasizing yield over pure share.

• Labor and service levels: Executing cuts while preserving on-time performance and morale is the tightrope; any holiday wobble would show up quickly in the stock.

What would push UPS higher from here? Sustained on-time metrics through peak, confirmation that savings flow through 2026 guidance, and signs that premium small-business and healthcare volumes are replacing lower-margin freight.

What to watch next

• Macro: Rate expectations and dollar strength can sway both names—MSFT via global software demand, UPS via trade flows and fuel costs.

• Guidance language: For MSFT, the AI capacity ramp and Azure growth brackets; for UPS, margin bridges and pace of network cuts.

• Positioning and flows: After multi-session moves, expect choppy trade as short-term holders reset.

• Microsoft stock delivered strong fundamentals, but the post-earnings drift shows how much AI momentum was already embedded in expectations.

• UPS stock continues to grind higher as investors reward credible cost discipline and a cleaner earnings path.
  Both stories hinge on execution: Microsoft on scaling AI supply and monetization, UPS on proving that a leaner network can protect service—and profits—through the busiest weeks of the year.