Chipotle stock (CMG) slips after Q3: EPS in line, sales light, guidance cut; shares hover around $40

Chipotle (CMG) wavered near $40 on Wednesday afternoon after the burrito chain posted mixed third-quarter 2025 results: earnings per share matched estimates at $0.29, revenue came in just below expectations at roughly $3.0 billion, and management trimmed its 2025 same-store sales outlook. The stock, already down more than 30% year-to-date, dipped again as traders weighed slower traffic against long-term expansion plans.

CMG stock price today: quick snapshot

• Last trade: about $39–$40 late Wednesday (intraday high ~$41; low ~$35 during earnings volatility)

• Market value: ~$76 billion

• 2025 performance: off roughly a third for the year

The initial post-print bounce faded as investors focused on comps and margin commentary rather than the headline EPS match.

What the quarter showed: comps, check, and margin math

Chipotle’s quarter distilled into three line items that matter most for the stock:

1. Comparable sales: up roughly 0.3%, shy of what many expected. The mix leaned on average check (+~1%) while transactions slipped (~–1%), reinforcing the narrative that higher prices are dampening traffic at the margin.

2. Revenue: near $3.0B, a hair below consensus—small in size but meaningful symbolically after a soft prior quarter.

3. Margins: restaurant-level margin and operating margin ticked lower year over year, reflecting protein inflation (beef/chicken), wage pressure, and promo intensity.

Management’s outlook reduction—now pointing to low single-digit comparable sales decline for full-year 2025 rather than ~flat—was the swing factor. It signals a longer runway to reaccelerate guest counts even as new units and digital throughput continue to scale.

Why the guide cut stings

For a premium multiple restaurant name, traffic is destiny. Investors will pay up when guest counts are rising because mix and pricing then become gravy rather than defense. With transactions negative and value perceptions stretched, the bar shifts to execution on perceived affordability—think sharper bundles, targeted promotions, and operational speed that makes the experience feel worth the price.

Three challenges stand out:

• Value messaging: Core fans remain loyal, but casual diners are price sensitive. Bundles and limited-time proteins help, yet haven’t fully offset sticker shock.

• Input costs: Protein inflation and freight remain swing variables; even modest relief could unlock margin upside, but visibility is limited.

• Promo balance: Stimulating traffic without denting margins will require surgical offers tied to dayparts and loyalty data, not broad-based discounting.

Offense vs. defense: the strategic mix from here

Chipotle still has levers few competitors can match:

• Unit growth: A steady cadence of new restaurants—with drive-thru-style pickup lanes—expands reach and protects average unit volumes.

• Digital and loyalty: High-frequency guests and app-driven orders give the brand a data edge to aim promotions where they convert best.

• Menu flexibility: Rotating proteins and seasonal items sustain novelty; the trick is ensuring those lifts translate into repeat visits at full price.

The defense, meanwhile, is about cost discipline and throughput—keeping lines moving, managing labor per transaction, and squeezing waste out of the system to defend margins while traffic rebuilds.

What would change the CMG story near term

• Traffic inflection: Even a modest swing to positive transactions would be read as proof that value work is landing.

• Input-cost relief: Cooling beef and chicken costs, or better contracting, could add 100–200 bps of margin over several quarters.

• International proof points: Early wins in newer markets (Asia, Mexico, selective Europe) would broaden the growth narrative beyond a slower U.S. consumer.

How the tape sets up into year-end

With expectations reset, the path of least resistance is range-bound trading until investors see cleaner evidence on comps. Bulls argue that the combination of unit growth, loyalty monetization, and eventual cost relief supports a rebound; bears point to a stretched consumer and rising competitive promos in fast casual. In practical terms, that means headlines around traffic, pricing tests, and holiday throughput will move the stock more than incremental store-count updates.

Chipotle stock is digesting a quarter that was fine on EPS, soft on sales, and cautious on guidance. The valuation can work again when traffic turns from headwind to tailwind and margins stop leaking on protein and promo pressure. Until then, the debate hinges on whether value messaging and operations can coax budget-conscious diners back often enough to lift comps above zero—and keep them there.