S&P 500 futures wobble as Big Tech hangover meets post-Fed caution; markets weigh trade thaw, $60 oil

Bassyonni

ago 5 hours

S&P 500

Business news today (Thu, Oct. 30, 2025): U.S. equity futures were mostly softer before the bell, with S&P 500 futures edging down after an on-target Fed cut and a mixed mega-cap earnings blitz. The stock market news tone is cautious: investors are digesting an AI-spend shock from one tech giant, steadier results elsewhere, a tentative U.S.–China trade opening, and Treasury yields holding near 4.05% on the 10-year. WTI crude hovers around $60, the dollar is steady, and risk appetite is selective rather than broad.

Market snapshot: futures, yields, and commodities

S&P 500 futures: fractionally lower, signaling a flat-to-down open after Wednesday’s choppy finish.
Dow futures: underperforming on industrial and consumer staples softness.
Nasdaq futures: near unchanged as traders balance ad-platform weakness against strength in search and semis.
Bonds: the 10-year Treasury ~4.05%; front-end yields reflect reduced odds of another cut at the December FOMC.
Oil: WTI ~$60; Brent ~low-$60s, with supply headlines offset by slower global growth signals.
Gold: softer as real yields hold up; crypto mixed.

Fed decision sets the table: “cut, then wait”

The FOMC delivered a 25 bp trim to 3.75%–4.00%, but emphasized uncertainty given data gaps from the federal shutdown. Translation for stocks: policy is easing at the margin, yet the bar for a December rate cut is higher without clear evidence of labor softening and tamer services inflation. That “cut-and-see” stance keeps a lid on multiple expansion even with earnings season punching above its weight.

Earnings drive: AI spend shock vs. ad strength—and why futures flinched

After the close, one social-media heavyweight printed record revenue but a GAAP EPS air pocket from a roughly $16B one-time tax charge and, more importantly, telegraphed even bigger 2026 AI capex. Shares slid, pressuring Nasdaq futures. Offsetting that, a search/advertising peer rallied on cleaner execution and AI-assisted monetization, while enterprise software names were mixed as investors parsed opex lines tied to model training and inference. Chip leaders held recent gains, keeping the tech tape from unraveling.

Why it matters: The market’s AI narrative is shifting from sizzle to cash flow math. Bigger data-center budgets now demand a clearer bridge to revenue and margin—especially with long-lived depreciation rolling through 2026.

Macro to watch: claims, PMIs, and the shutdown shadow

Weekly jobless claims: One of the few timely reads while several federal reports remain delayed. A drift higher would support the Fed’s risk-management tilt; a drop would argue for patience on further easing.
PMI/services reads: Final October prints will color the growth mix—manufacturing is stabilizing, services pricing remains the swing factor.
Shutdown effects: With official data thin, markets are leaning on private proxies; that widens error bands around macro calls and keeps intraday moves jumpy.

Sector check: where the tape wants to hide

Semiconductors/AI infrastructure: Still the market’s leadership lane; pullbacks have drawn buyers on every dip this month.
Internet & platforms: Divergence returns—names committing to heavier 2026 spend without near-term monetization clarity face de-rating risk.
Industrials: Mixed; capex beneficiaries perk up, while rate-sensitive transport and housing adjacencies lag on firmer yields.
Energy: Crude near $60 crimps cash flow assumptions; integrateds steady, high-beta E&Ps softer.
Financials: Higher long rates help net interest margins, but deal/t rading pipelines remain uneven.

The S&P 500 setup: levels and catalysts

Support: 50-day moving area just below recent highs; buyers defended it on the last pullback.
Resistance: Prior peak zone remains sticky until earnings breadth improves beyond tech.
Catalysts ahead: Big-box retail and payments results, weekly claims, any follow-through on a Washington-Beijing trade mini-deal (rare earths, ag, fentanyl enforcement). Concrete details would influence cyclicals and the dollar.

Strategy notes for a headline-driven tape

Quality bias: Stick with balance sheets that can self-fund AI pivots rather than promise them.
Earnings over multiples: Names guiding cleanly on FY26 cash returns are separating from those offering buzz without bridges.
Mind the calendar: Into month-end and payrolls week (timing subject to shutdown delays), expect futures to over-react to second-tier data and corporate guidance snippets.

S&P 500 futures reflect a market caught between post-Fed pragmatism and earnings crosscurrents. The path of least resistance today is sideways-to-softer: yields are firm, AI capex is real money, and data clarity is scarce. For bulls, the case rests on resilient ad spend, semis leadership, and a gentle macro glide path; for bears, it’s the valuation drag of higher-for-longer capex and a Fed that just told you December isn’t a done deal.