Spanberger Surges Ahead; Jones Falls Behind Miyares
Recent polling indicates a notable shift in the Virginia gubernatorial race, where Democrat Abigail Spanberger maintains a significant ten-point lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears. The Roanoke College Poll reveals Spanberger at 51%, while Earle-Sears stands at 41%. A mere 4% of likely voters remain undecided, and 1% prefer another candidate.
Polling Methodology
The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) conducted this survey, interviewing 1,041 likely voters in Virginia from October 22 to October 27, 2025. The poll features a weighted margin of error of 4.05%.
Key Race Highlights
- Gubernatorial Race: Abigail Spanberger (Democrat) 51% – Winsome Earle-Sears (Republican) 41%
- Lieutenant Governor Race: Ghazala Hashmi (Democrat) 42% – John Reid (Republican) 40%
- Attorney General Race: Jason Miyares (Republican) 46% – Jay Jones (Democrat) 38%
Voter Enthusiasm and Key Issues
Enthusiasm among likely voters is high, with two-thirds (67%) expressing strong eagerness to participate in the upcoming election. Key issues identified by respondents include:
- Threats to democracy: 29%
- Inflation: 24%
- Immigration: 12%
- Taxes: 5%
- Abortion: 5%
- Crime: 5%
Approval Ratings Insights
Approval ratings for key political figures remain relatively stable. President Donald Trump holds a 40% job approval rating, mirroring previous results from August. Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin also maintains a 50% approval rating, despite a 7-point decline in disapproval.
Abigail Spanberger’s favorability has improved, with a 47% favorable and 42% unfavorable rating. Meanwhile, Earle-Sears struggles slightly with a 38% favorable and 45% unfavorable rating.
Impact of Jay Jones’ Past Communications
A significant portion of likely voters (80%) reported awareness of controversial texts sent by Democratic candidate Jay Jones in 2022. Despite this, 87% of those who voted early for Jones stated they would have supported him regardless. Only 1% indicated they would switch their vote to incumbent Miyares.
Election Dynamics
Political analyst Dr. Harry Wilson emphasizes the importance of voter turnout and independent voters in determining the election’s outcome. While Spanberger has solidified her Democratic base, Earle-Sears must improve her standing among Republicans and independents within the limited time frame.
The tight races for lieutenant governor and attorney general remain within the poll’s margin of error. While Reid consolidates partisan support, he needs the backing of independent voters to succeed. Conversely, Hashmi has room for improvement among her Democratic base.
Jones’ support among Democrats is weakening, but this does not translate to votes for Miyares, indicating potential apathy among his base. A notable divergence exists between the gubernatorial and attorney general races, highlighting the complexities of this electoral cycle.
