November Insights: High Mean, Modest Median, Crucial Outliers
November holds a significant place in Bitcoin history, known for its strong performance over the years. However, when examining the data, the reputation of this month may be somewhat inflated by extraordinary past events. Crypto influencer Lark Davis remarked that November is Bitcoin’s “strongest month,” citing an average gain of approximately 42%. This figure is documented in the CoinGlass Bitcoin Monthly Returns heat map, covering the years 2013 to 2025.
Understanding November’s Performance: Mean vs. Median
While the average gain presents an optimistic view, it can be misleading due to the substantial influence of 2013’s outlier, which boasted an astounding increase of 449.35%. In contrast, the median performance for November stands at a modest 8.81%. This distinction is crucial as it illustrates the variability in performance across different years.
November’s Historical Performance Breakdown
- 2013: +449.35%
- 2018: -36.57%
- 2019: -17.27%
- 2020: +42.95%
- 2021: -7.11%
- 2022: -16.23%
- 2024: +37.29%
- 2025: +0.54%
This historical data indicates that while November has yielded significant gains in some years, it has also experienced notable losses. Thus, the phrase “November is strong on average” may not forecast future performance accurately.
The Rise of “Uptober” and “Moonvember”
These terms are popular within the crypto community, symbolizing the anticipated rally in October followed by continued momentum in November. The CoinGlass heat map reveals that, historically, October averages a gain of 19.92%, with a median of 14.71%. However, seasonal trends do not guarantee specific outcomes each year.
Practical Insights for Traders
To effectively utilize seasonal statistics without falling victim to bias, traders should combine both the mean and median figures. Understanding the range of performance is essential, as relying solely on the 42% average could lead to unrealistic price targets.
In practice, traders should seek confirmation before committing to trades based on seasonal trends. This confirmation can come from breaking through resistance levels, increased trading volume, and improved market breadth. Without this confirmation, it is advisable to remain cautious regarding calendar-driven trades.
