Democrats Lead Early Voting in NJ, NY, and VA 2025

Early voting data from New Jersey, New York, and Virginia suggests a favorable shift for Democratic candidates as they approach the November elections. Analysis indicates that Democrats are performing better in early voting turnout compared to prior elections, particularly in New Jersey and Virginia.

Democratic Performance in Early Voting

In New Jersey, Democratic Governor candidate Mikie Sherrill sees a stronger position than her predecessor, Harris, at this time last year. As of Thursday, registered Democrats have outperformed Republicans in both mail-in and in-person early voting.

• Democrats lead mail ballot returns by over 41 points.
• Early in-person voting shows a two-point advantage for Democrats.
• Mail ballots represent a larger portion of early voting compared to previous elections.

This shows a larger share of early votes going to Democrats compared to 2024, which greatly enhances Sherrill’s chances entering the final weekend before the election.

Insights from New York Voting Trends

In New York, recent indicators suggest Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger holds a slight edge over Harris’s performance last year. While not all voters are registered by political party, geographic voting data shows that mail-in ballots account for 24% of early votes, up from 21% last year, contributing to a more favorable Democratic voting landscape.

• Districts supporting Trump gathered 61% of in-person votes compared to last year.
• Areas where Harris won have seen around 57% of their in-person votes from last year.
• The gap between Trump and Harris districts has narrowed significantly.

Opening additional polling places in Democratic-leaning areas has enabled a more favorable voting dynamic for Spanberger.

Virginia’s Competitive Landscape

Similarly, Virginia’s voting data shows that Spanberger has a slight lead compared to Harris at this stage last year. While early mail ballots maintain a Democratic advantage, in-person voting appears to favor Republicans.

• Mail-in ballots account for approximately 24% of early votes, an increase from last year.
• Trump’s districts are registering 61% of in-person votes while Harris’s zones are at 57%.

The narrowing gap between these districts indicates a competitive race is developing as the elections approach.

Final Considerations Ahead of November 4

As Election Day approaches, it remains uncertain how these early voting patterns will translate into actual results. The final outcome on November 4 will depend heavily on day-of voting and shifts in key districts. Despite the positive trends for Democrats, ongoing shifts in voter dynamics could significantly influence the election.