Experts: Trump’s Nuclear Testing Plans Unlikely to Yield Mushroom Clouds

Experts express skepticism regarding President Trump’s assertion to resume U.S. nuclear testing, indicating it is unlikely to produce the dramatic effects associated with mushroom clouds. His comments have sparked interest and concern within the nuclear nonproliferation community about the implications of potential U.S. testing.

Trump’s Statements on Nuclear Testing

During an interview on “60 Minutes,” President Trump stated, “We’re the only country that doesn’t test,” urging a re-examination of the U.S. nuclear testing policy. The last above-ground tests in the U.S. occurred in the 1960s, while the last underground detonation was in 1992 at the Nevada Test Site.

Trump reiterated his commitment to nuclear testing, pointing out that rival nations, including Russia, China, North Korea, and Pakistan, continue their nuclear activities. He emphasized the need for the U.S. to keep pace with other nations regarding nuclear capabilities.

Intelligence Community’s Perspective

CIA Director John Ratcliffe supported Trump’s position, referencing Defense Intelligence Agency reports indicating that Russia and China conduct low-yield nuclear tests. These tests, which produce minimal explosive yields, are prohibited under international treaties but can still provide critical data on weapon efficacy.

Global Nuclear Arsenal Overview

• The nine nuclear-armed nations: U.S., Russia, China, France, U.K., Pakistan, India, and Israel.
• Combined total of over 12,000 nuclear warheads worldwide.
• U.S. and Russia account for approximately 90% of the global stockpile.

The Federation of American Scientists and various nuclear experts indicate that the potential resumption of U.S. testing poses risks. Some, like George Perkovich from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, suggest that Trump likely refers to “subcritical” tests that do not yield visible explosions.

Understanding Subcritical Tests

Subcritical tests focus on refining the processes necessary for nuclear detonation without resulting in a full-scale explosion. Sigfried Hecker, a former director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, confirmed that both China and Russia engage in similar experiments.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright clarified Trump’s comments on Fox News, stating that the president spoke of “systems tests.” These involve testing various components of nuclear weapons without actual explosions.

Potential Global Impact

Should the U.S. resume nuclear testing, it could trigger similar actions by other nations, particularly China. Experts like Heather Williams from the Center for Strategic and International Studies note that China could leverage any new data from U.S. tests to enhance its nuclear arsenal.

Despite these discussions, many political and scientific leaders agree that there is no technical necessity for the U.S. to return to nuclear testing. The geopolitical implications and risks associated with such actions remain contentious among experts in the field.