LCID or RIVN: Which EV Stock Shines Before Q3 Earnings?
Rivian Automotive (RIVN) and Lucid Group (LCID) are two prominent electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers set to announce their third-quarter earnings soon. Rivian will report on November 4, followed by Lucid on November 5. As the electric vehicle market advances, both companies confront significant challenges that could influence their financial outcomes.
Challenges Facing the EV Industry
The electric vehicle sector is viewed as a transformative force in transportation. However, it grapples with various obstacles, including:
- High production costs
- Increasing tariffs
- Expiring tax credits
- Potential policy shifts under the next U.S. administration
Investors are closely monitoring Rivian and Lucid as they approach their quarterly earnings reports, eager to identify which stock may present greater upside potential.
Rivian’s Earnings Expectations
Wall Street analysts forecast that Rivian will report a loss of $0.74 per share for Q3, an improvement from last year’s loss of $0.97. Revenue is anticipated to rise significantly, projected at $1.51 billion, which indicates a year-over-year increase of 73% fueled by robust vehicle deliveries.
Q3 Delivery Highlights
Rivian announced deliveries of 13,201 vehicles in Q3, representing a 32% increase compared to the previous year. For context, the company delivered 10,661 vehicles in Q2. However, the company has adjusted its full-year delivery guidance to 41,500 to 43,500 vehicles, down from an earlier estimate of 46,000.
Analyst Sentiment on Rivian
Analysts are split regarding Rivian’s future. While J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman maintains a Sell rating, predicting a decline of over 25% from current levels, Stifel Nicolaus’s five-star-rated analyst Stephen Gengaro remains optimistic. Gengaro has a Buy rating on Rivian, suggesting an 18% upside.
Lucid’s Financial Outlook
For Lucid, analysts expect the company to report a loss of $2.30 per share this quarter, an improvement from last year’s $2.80 loss. Projected revenue for Q3 stands at approximately $370.6 million, marking an 85% increase year over year.
Delivery Performance
In October, Lucid revealed that Q3 deliveries rose 47% from the previous quarter. However, it fell short of expectations, delivering fewer than 4,286 vehicles as anticipated by analysts.
Future Growth Prospects for Lucid
Lucid’s long-term outlook remains promising. The company plans to launch a new midsize EV platform in 2026, aimed at providing more affordable models while enhancing manufacturing efficiency. Additionally, Lucid aims to strengthen its U.S. supply chain through new partnerships and a battery recycling initiative.
Analyst Insights on Lucid
Gengaro has a Hold rating on Lucid, implying an upside potential of over 18%. His price target for the stock was recently increased from $19.63 to $21. Analysts also note that Lucid may need further funding to support its initiatives. Cantor Fitzgerald’s top analyst Andres Sheppard highlighted that the midsize EV platform could significantly boost production and profitability.
Comparative Analysis: LCID vs. RIVN
A comparison using TipRanks’ Stock Comparison Tool reveals that both LCID and RIVN carry a Hold rating. Rivian’s price target of $13.69 indicates a potential upside of around 7%, while Lucid’s target of $25.00 suggests an impressive upside of approximately 52.35% from current prices.
Conclusion
As Rivian and Lucid head into their Q3 earnings reports, they face numerous challenges, ranging from rising costs to changing EV incentives. While Rivian demonstrates notable delivery growth, Lucid’s future models could unlock significant potential. Currently, analysts lean toward Lucid as a more favorable long-term investment option.
