Top CFB Betting Splits Revealed for Friday, November 7
On Friday, November 7, college football fans can look forward to exciting matchups that have drawn considerable betting interests. Examining the lines and betting splits provides insight into which teams the public and sharp bettors favor.
Key Matchup: Tulane vs. Memphis
Tulane (6-2) recently ended a three-game winning streak after a loss to UTSA, while Memphis (8-1), currently ranked 22nd, has won their last two games, defeating Rice 38-14. Memphis opened as a 6.5-point favorite at home.
- Public Betting: 80% of spread bets are placing their support on Memphis.
- Line Movement: Despite the public favoring Memphis, the line has dropped from -6.5 to -3.5, indicating pressure from sharp money on Tulane.
- Key Player Status: Memphis quarterback Brendon Lewis is questionable due to a lower body injury.
The betting dynamics suggest Tulane might be the smart play, receiving only 20% of spread bets but 39% of spread dollars at DraftKings. At Circa, these figures are 29% for bets and 65% for dollars, revealing a “low bets, higher dollars” situation favoring the Green Wave.
Trends and Statistics
- Tulane represents a significant “bet against the public” opportunity.
- Short road dogs (+4 or fewer) have performed at a 53% ATS rate since 2012.
- Friday night road dogs are 13-8 ATS (62%) this season.
- Unranked dogs versus ranked teams are 69-59 ATS (54%) this season.
The total points line for this game has dropped from 55.5 to 54.5, suggesting that sharp bettors anticipate a lower-scoring affair, despite 81% of public bets pushing for the over.
Matchup Insight: Northwestern vs. USC
In another intriguing matchup, Northwestern (5-3) seeks redemption after a loss to Nebraska, while USC (6-2), ranked 20th, struggled to cover against Nebraska as well. This game has opened with USC as a 15-point home favorite, and the early betting suggests the public is backing them 63% of the time.
- Line Adjustment: USC has seen their line decline from -15 to -14, indicating sharp action on Northwestern.
- Public vs. Sharp Money: While USC has a strong backing in ticket count, Northwestern is securing a higher percentage of spread dollars at Circa, with 47% of bets versus 71% of dollars.
Statistical Highlights
- Unranked teams playing ranked opponents have an ATS record of 69-59 (54%) this season.
- Road dogs this season are 13-8 ATS (62%).
- Northwestern has the advantage of coming off a bye week while USC played recently.
- In Big Ten matchups, the dog is 27-20 ATS (57%).
Both matchups promise potential upsets, with Tulane and Northwestern illustrating classic trends in college football betting. As always, following the money provides critical insight into how each game could unfold.
