NFL Betting Splits: Top Picks for Sunday, November 16

As NFL Week 11 approaches, a packed schedule features 13 games, presenting opportunities for sports betting insights. This analysis highlights key matchups and betting splits from El-Balad, focusing on three significant games this Sunday, November 16.

NFL Betting Splits: Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans

The Houston Texans (4-5) are set to face the Tennessee Titans (1-8). Houston recently achieved an impressive comeback victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars, winning 36-29. Conversely, Tennessee narrowly lost 27-20 to the Los Angeles Chargers but managed to cover as 10-point underdogs.

Initially, the Texans were favored by 7.5 points on the road. However, amid a flurry of betting action, the line has dropped to 5.5 points. Although 73% of bets are backing Houston, sportsbooks have adjusted the line, indicating sharp money is siding with the Titans. Tennessee is gathering only 27% of spread bets but 37% of spread dollars, illustrating a “sharp split.” At Circa, the Titans have 51% of bets and 58% of spread dollars.

Statistically, teams coming off a loss facing an opponent fresh off a win, like Tennessee, show promise, standing 28-20 against the spread (ATS) this season. Furthermore, divisional dogs also benefit from familiarity, with a historical ATS record of 322-283 (53%) since 2019. The Titans have the advantage of rest, as they come off a bye week while Houston travels after a recent game.

Total Points and Betting Trend Analysis

Betting trends indicate a lean towards the under, as the total has shifted from 38.5 to 37.5. Here, the under is receiving 43% of bets, but 70% of spread dollars, which reflects a consensus for a lower scoring game. Notably, the referee, Shawn Hochuli, has a 57% historical tendency for unders. Weather conditions are also expected to influence scoring, with mild temperatures in the low 60s and 10 MPH wind expected on game day.

NFL Betting Splits: Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings

In another pivotal matchup, the Chicago Bears (6-3) will take on the Minnesota Vikings (4-5). Chicago barely edged past the New York Giants with a close 24-20 finish. Meanwhile, Minnesota fell short against the Baltimore Ravens, losing 27-19.

The betting line has shifted from the Vikings initially favored by 3 points to 2.5 points. Despite a split ticket count of 50/50 at DraftKings, the movement towards Chicago indicates sharper money placing larger bets on the road team. The Bears benefit from similar divisional dog trends, with their performance historically yielding returns.

Smart bettors may consider taking Chicago with a “Wong Teaser” strategy, moving their line from +2.5 to +8.5, allowing them to navigate through essential scoring thresholds.

NFL Betting Splits: Detroit Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The Detroit Lions (6-3) face the Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) in a game featuring two solid teams. Detroit’s recent win over the Washington Commanders (44-22) has bolstered their public appeal. In contrast, Philadelphia narrowly triumphed against the Green Bay Packers, winning 10-7 as slight underdogs.

Opened as 1.5-point favorites, the Eagles have seen the line move to 2.5 points despite 59% of public bets on Detroit. This reflects a strong reliance on sharp movement favoring Philadelphia, with only 41% of bets on the Eagles but 62% of dollars backing them. Historical trends suggest that home favorites are successful in such close matchups, demonstrating a clear edge.

Strategic Betting Insights

• Jalen Hurts holds an impressive 79% ATS record as a short favorite of three points or fewer.
• When both teams are coming off victories, home favorites win 72% of the time straight up.
• In instances when the public heavily favors one side, observing sharp money can be crucial for betting decisions.

This Sunday promises compelling matchups in the NFL, with significant betting implications arising from recent trends and historical performances. Understanding these dynamics can provide bettors with a strategic edge.