Odds of Fed Cutting Rates in December Drop to 30%
The likelihood of the U.S. Federal Reserve reducing interest rates in December has declined significantly. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, the odds have dropped to 30% from 50% just a week ago and down from a staggering 98% a month prior. This reduction in probability reflects growing concerns regarding a prolonged absence of economic data, which complicates decision-making for the Fed.
Impact of Data Blackout on Interest Rate Decisions
The Fed’s uncertainty is largely due to a significant gap in critical economic information. The Labor Department announced that it will not release the jobs data for October, a situation attributable to the recent government shutdown, which was the longest on record.
Fed Meeting Insights
Additionally, the minutes from the Fed’s October meeting, released on Wednesday, revealed deep divisions among Federal Reserve officials. These discussions highlighted conflicting opinions on whether to pause or proceed with rate cuts.
Market Reactions
In the financial markets, Bitcoin has shown some resilience. As of the latest updates, it traded at $91,700, reflecting a 0.8% increase over the past 24 hours.
- Current rate cut probability: 30%
- Previous probabilities: 50% (1 week ago), 98% (1 month ago)
- Bitcoin price: $91,700
The evolving landscape of economic indicators will play a crucial role in shaping future monetary policy. Market participants will be closely watching for any new data releases that could influence the Fed’s decisions moving forward.
