Tennessee Special Election Tests Democratic Momentum for 2025 Races

The upcoming special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District is poised to be a pivotal moment for Democrats as they seek to capitalize on recent electoral momentum. With the election scheduled for Tuesday, this contest represents the last of five special elections in 2023.

Tennessee 7th Congressional District: A Key Battleground

Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn faces Republican Matt Van Epps in a district that typically supports conservative candidates. Despite its deep-red reputation, recent trends indicate a favorable environment for Democrats.

• The district stretches west from Nashville and was previously represented by Republican Mark Green, who won by over 20 points in 2024.
• Behn’s campaign focuses on affordability and criticizes Republican spending policies and Trump’s tariffs.
• Van Epps, a military helicopter pilot, emphasizes his commitment to lowering costs and creating jobs.

Early Voting and Turnout Trends

As of Monday, over 63,000 ballots have been cast, representing approximately 35% of the previous election’s total turnout. This level of early voting is notable, especially given Tennessee’s traditional low voter engagement.

Historically, special elections see reduced turnout; however, this year’s contests in the U.S. House have averaged 57% of the turnout seen during the 2022 midterms.

Democratic Strategy and National Attention

Democratic leaders, including Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin and former Vice President Kamala Harris, have rallied support for Behn. The House Majority PAC has committed $1 million to her campaign, the first such investment in this election cycle.

• Behn cites voter dissatisfaction with the current political climate as a potential driver for Democratic success.
• She argues that the South has been underserved and overlooked, emphasizing the importance of national support for her campaign.

Historical Context and Recent Performance

Democrats have shown significant over-performance in special elections this year, averaging a 16-point advantage over their predicted margins. This trend mirrors the outcomes early in Trump’s presidency, where Democrats similarly surpassed expectations.

Recent polls indicate a growing motivation among Democratic voters, particularly in opposition to Trump’s influence. As the 2026 elections approach, 79% of Democratic-aligned voters signal that their votes will serve as a referendum on Trump.

Conclusion

The Tennessee 7th Congressional District special election will be a critical test of Democratic momentum as the party gears up for the 2025 races. With substantial national attention, high early voter turnout, and a focus on pressing issues like affordability, it could signal a broader shift in voter sentiment across conservative strongholds.