Is Chelsea a True Title Contender?

As Chelsea strives to reclaim its former glory, the question remains: Is Chelsea a true title contender? Under the management of Enzo Maresca, the team has shown potential but faces significant challenges.

Current Performance Overview

This season, Chelsea has displayed commendable attacking prowess, even without Cole Palmer, who has been sidelined for over two months due to injury. However, their performance has not been consistent enough to place them in title contention.

Goal Differential Statistics

To compete for the Premier League title, a team typically needs to maintain a goal difference of +1 in expected goals (npXG) per game. Currently, only Arsenal has achieved this mark, showcasing their ability to create more chances than they concede.

• Arsenal: Consistently meeting the +1 npXG benchmark.
• Chelsea: Needs improvement defensively to match this standard.

Challenges Against Lesser Opponents

Despite notable victories over top teams, such as Liverpool, Tottenham, and Barcelona, Chelsea’s inconsistency against lower-ranked opponents has been troubling. Marc Cucurella, the Spanish left-back, expressed concerns about dropping points in matches they were expected to win.

Comparative Analysis with Arsenal

Arsenal currently leads the league, demonstrating defensive mastery and a strong performance in set pieces, scoring 10 goals from 12 matches. In contrast, Chelsea has found success with eight goals from set pieces but trails in expected goals against defensive situations.

• Arsenal: 10 goals from set pieces, 7.88 xG.
• Chelsea: 8 goals from set pieces, 5.44 xG.

Although Chelsea has shown improvement compared to last season, their defensive statistics reveal they have faced difficulties. They hold the second worst xG against from set pieces at 6.40, compared to Arsenal’s 2.04.

Historical Performance Against Arsenal

As Chelsea prepares to face Arsenal again, they must confront a troubling history: just one win in their last 11 Premier League encounters. Additionally, Arsenal has been unbeaten in their last six visits to Stamford Bridge, adding to the challenges Chelsea faces in this fixture.

Conclusion

While Chelsea displays flashes of potential, their inconsistency and historical struggles against top competitors raise doubts about their status as true title contenders. Improvement in both defensive strategies and consistency in performance will be crucial for Chelsea to ascend the Premier League table.