College Football Playoff bracket watch: live 12-team projections, schedule, SEC/Big Ten stakes, and what Texas A&M’s loss means

Rivalry Weekend chaos has set the table for Championship Week and Selection Sunday. With the 12-team College Football Playoff entering its second year, the race now shifts from résumés to seeding: four byes, four campus first-round hosts, and a scramble for the final at-large bids.

How the 12-team CFP works in 2025

• Field: 12 teams.

• Access: The five highest-ranked conference champions plus the seven highest-ranked others.

• Byes: The top four overall teams receive first-round byes (no conference-champion requirement this season).

• First round (on campus): 5 vs 12, 6 vs 11, 7 vs 10, 8 vs 9.

• No reseeding: Winners feed into set quarterfinal bowls, then semifinals, then the title game.

Key dates and TV windows (ET)

• Selection Sunday: Sun, Dec. 7 — bracket revealed.

• First round (campus sites): Fri, Dec. 19 (8:00 p.m.); Sat, Dec. 20 (Noon, 3:30 p.m., 7:30 p.m.).

• Quarterfinals: Wed, Dec. 31 (evening) and Thu, Jan. 1 (Noon, late afternoon, night).

• Semifinals: Thu–Fri, Jan. 8–9 (prime time).

• National Championship: Mon, Jan. 19 (prime time, Miami Gardens).
  UK times are five hours ahead (GMT).

Today’s bracket temperature check (entering Championship Week)

Consensus projections as of Monday place these programs on (or nearest) the four bye lines:

1. Ohio State

2. Georgia

3. Indiana

4. Texas Tech

The next four seeds (5–8) are battling to host first-round campus games:

• Texas A&M, Oregon, Ole Miss, Alabama (order varies across models)

Bubble/positioning range (9–14, competing for seeding security and final berths):

• Texas, Miami, BYU, and the top Group-of-6 champion (e.g., South Florida or a late-charging peer) among those oscillating week to week.

Note: The precise 5–12 pairings will swing on conference title outcomes and Tuesday’s penultimate rankings. Expect minor shuffles even without upsets.

What happens if Texas A&M loses to Texas? (It just did — here’s the impact.)

• Bye jeopardized: The Aggies’ rivalry loss removed their clean path to a top-four seed. They remain inside the projected field, but the defeat likely pushed them below the bye line.

• Seeding hit: Instead of a No. 3–4 scenario, A&M profiles in the 5–8 band, trading a week off for a home first-round game—still valuable, but a tougher road.

• Path forward: With no division tiebreaker lifeline and the SEC title game out of reach, the Aggies are in protect-the-seed mode: hope for favorable results elsewhere and minimal movement in the committee’s late recalibration.

SEC and Big Ten storylines to watch

• SEC: Georgia vs. Alabama decides a bye and possibly the No. 1 or No. 2 overall. A Georgia win cements a top-two seed; an Alabama win likely pushes the Tide into the bye quartet and could slide Georgia to 3–4 (still a bye). Ole Miss is playing for host/seed strength; Texas A&M for damage control after the rivalry stumble.

• Big Ten: Ohio State sits in pole position for the No. 1 seed with a title and clean metrics. Indiana has lived on defensive consistency; a conference crown would stabilize a top-three slot.

• Pac-12/West: Oregon can lock a campus host with a title and outside shot at the bye line if chaos erupts above.

• ACC/others: Miami is trending upward; the top Group-of-6 champion’s ranking will determine whether it lands in the 9–12 zone (road first-round) or gets squeezed to the cut line.

Projected first-round shape (illustrative only)

• (5) A&M vs (12) Group-of-6 champ

• (6) Oregon vs (11) BYU

• (7) Ole Miss vs (10) Miami

• (8) Alabama vs (9) Texas
  Winners would advance to quarterfinal bowls on New Year’s Eve/Day against the four bye teams.

Live questions fans keep asking

How many teams make the CFP? Twelve.
Does a conference champ automatically get a bye? No. In 2025, byes go to the top four overall.
Campus games—what do they mean? Seeds 5–8 host, a huge edge in December weather and travel.
Can a team that loses this weekend still get in? Yes—if metrics and strength of schedule hold up. But seeding/hosting power can evaporate with a single loss.
Ole Miss and Georgia scores? Results are folded into today’s projections; late-breaking changes this week may still nudge seeding bands.

What to watch on Championship Saturday

• Margin matters: The committee distinguishes between coin-flip escapes and statement wins.

• Injuries & availability: Late personnel news can subtly move teams separated by razor-thin résumés.

• Common opponents & away wins: These remain reliable tiebreak nudges in clustered cases.

Selection Sunday (Dec. 7) will finalize a 12-team bracket with four byes and four campus hosts. Georgia–Alabama likely decides a bye and possibly the No. 1 vs. No. 2 debate; Ohio State and Indiana are positioned to secure the other bye slots with titles. Texas A&M’s loss to Texas shifted the Aggies from bye contention to a probable home first-round. From there, it’s a clean sprint: campus showdowns Dec. 19–20, New Year’s quarterfinals, early-January semifinals, and a Jan. 19 championship under the lights in Miami.