NFL Playoff Picture Today: Bears Rise to NFC No. 1, Broncos Hold AFC Pole (For Now), and Who Can Clinch Next

Bassyonni

ago 42 minutes

NFL Playoff Picture

With Week 13 nearly complete and one Monday nighter still to go, the NFL playoff picture tightened on both sides of the bracket. The Bears have climbed to the NFC’s No. 1 seed, while the Broncos currently control the AFC’s top spot—though the final game of the week can still nudge the conference order.

AFC Playoff Picture: Broncos on Top, Patriots Close, South Race Turns Three-Way

No. 1 seed race: Denver sits in the conference’s driver’s seat after a high-wire overtime win. The top seed remains fluid, with New England poised to retake No. 1 with a Monday night win; a loss would keep the Broncos in front.
Bye and home-field stakes: The battle for the AFC’s second seed is tight enough that a single result can flip home-field paths for January. Watch how conference-record and common-opponent tiebreakers stack up—those already separate teams with equal records.
AFC South spotlight: Jacksonville and Indianapolis are neck-and-neck, and recent form suggests the South could become a three-team hunt down the stretch if the chasing club strings wins together. Division record is the first swing factor; head-to-head splits and common opponents loom next.
Wild-card line: Buffalo currently occupies the No. 7 slot, with a pack close behind. Strength of victory (third or fourth tiebreak, depending on the tie size) may matter if several teams finish stacked at 9–8.
Teams that helped themselves: Clubs with clean two-minute execution on Sunday—converting red-zone trips into touchdowns instead of field goals—gained crucial point-differential cushions that could become strength-of-victory edges later.

What could clinch next: The first AFC clinch paths are within reach if a top seed wins next weekend and multiple rivals lose. Keep an eye on “win + two losses elsewhere” combinations for early postseason tickets.

NFC Playoff Picture: Bears at No. 1, Rams Chasing, NFC South Leader Holding Serve

Top seed shuffle: Chicago has surged to NFC No. 1. The Rams sit close behind, followed by Philadelphia. These three control their destiny for at least one home game—and in the Bears’ case, potentially the conference bye.
South leader stabilizes: Tampa Bay leads the NFC South and currently projects as the No. 4 seed. A one-game wobble can swing this division, but a positive division record gives the Bucs a buffer as December begins.
Wild-card shape: Seattle and Green Bay are tracking as 5/6, with San Francisco in the 7 slot for the moment. In the hunt: Detroit, Dallas, and Carolina, each with plausible paths via conference-record gains and closing-stretch head-to-heads.
Why seeding matters here: The NFC’s middle seeds are tightly banded. A single slip from a current division leader could drop that team from hosting on Wild Card Weekend to traveling as a 5 or 6.

Potential early clinches: If the top four hold serve and a couple of bubble teams stumble, the NFC could see its first postseason berth locked next week on “win + help” math.

Tiebreaker Reminders That Will Decide Seeds

Division ties: Head-to-head, then division record, then common games.
Wild-card ties (different divisions): Head-to-head (if applicable), then conference record, then common games (minimum four), then strength of victory.
Multi-team logjams: The league breaks the big tie to the first qualifying team, then re-applies the procedure to remaining clubs—expect movement week to week.

Who’s Trending Up (and Why)

Chicago: Defense generating short fields plus a stabilized red-zone offense—top-seed formula.
Denver: Late-game answers and a favorable conference mark keep them ahead in tiebreaks.
Jacksonville/Indianapolis: Even with different styles (explosive vs. balanced), both carry division-record leverage that travels well into December.
Seattle/Green Bay: Turnover margins have flipped recent results; both are positioned to protect wild-card spots if they avoid special-teams leaks.

On the Bubble: What Must Happen

AFC bubble teams: Split tough December road games and stack conference wins. It’s better to beat a mid-tier AFC foe than blow out an NFC opponent when tiebreakers are looming.
NFC chasers (Detroit, Dallas, Carolina): Win your head-to-heads and root for splits among the current 5/6/7 to drag the cutoff down to 10–7 or 9–8.

The Week Ahead: Clinch Tracks and Flex Implications

Clinch watch: Top seeds can secure “in with help” scenarios with wins next weekend. Several teams are one result away from “can clinch with two losses elsewhere” territory.
Seeding volatility: Expect at least one conference’s 2–4 lines to reorder based on Monday night and next Sunday’s late window.
Scheduling flex: Prime-time and late-window flexes will increasingly favor games with direct seeding implications; divisional rematches with wild-card weight are prime candidates.

Entering Tuesday, the Broncos hold the AFC’s top seed with the Patriots able to retake it on Monday night, while the Bears sit atop the NFC ahead of the Rams and Eagles. The AFC South is shaping into a three-team grinder, Buffalo clings to the last wild card, and the NFC wild-card trio of Seattle, Green Bay, and San Francisco faces fierce pressure from Detroit, Dallas, and Carolina. December’s first full slate will bring the season’s first clinches—and likely our next reshuffle at the top.