College Football Playoff bracket & bowl projections: What the 12-team field likely looks like heading into Championship Week

Bassyonni

ago 45 minutes

College Football Playoff

The penultimate College Football Playoff rankings drop tonight, and the board is finally settling. With Texas beating Texas A&M over the weekend and the SEC title matchup locked, the 12-team picture is clearer than it has been all season—though conference championship results can still scramble seeds and hosting rights.

CFP bracket basics (quick refresher)

How many teams make the College Football Playoff? 12 teams.
Who gets in? The five highest-ranked conference champions receive automatic bids, joined by seven at-large teams.
Byes & hosts: The top four seeds (highest-ranked teams) get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host seeds 9–12 on campus in the first round.
Key 2025–26 dates (ET): First round Dec. 19–20; Quarterfinals Dec. 31–Jan. 1; Semifinals Jan. 8–9; National Championship Jan. 19.

Today’s likely CFP top 12 tiers

Near-locks (win or lose titles, they’re in):

Georgia (SEC finalist) — 11–1 and tracking for a top-two seed with a win; still a bye candidate even with a close loss.
Alabama (SEC finalist) — Earned a path to a quarterfinal bye with a statement win in Atlanta; a loss still leaves a solid at-large resume.
Ole Miss — One-loss profile and quality wins point to a first-round home game at minimum.
Ohio State & Indiana (Big Ten finalists) — Both unbeaten entering Indy; winner almost certainly the No. 1 seed. The runner-up remains in as an at-large unless blown out.

Control-your-destiny conference contenders:

ACC champion — Winner is in, with seed depending on margin and carnage elsewhere.
Big 12 champion — Similar path; champion almost certainly gets one of the five auto bids.
AAC/MWC/others — Highest-ranked champ among the remaining leagues is favored for auto-bid No. 5; seed typically 9–12.

At-large bubble (results dependent):

Teams with 1–2 losses from the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 jockeying for seeds 6–12. Small margins in title games will separate a campus host (5–8) from a road trip (9–12).

What Texas vs. Texas A&M changed

If Texas A&M loses to Texas… That happened. The Aggies’ defeat erased their path to the SEC title game and effectively elevated Georgia into the matchup. Knock-on effect: Alabama’s win/loss in the Iron Bowl and conference tiebreakers finalized Georgia vs. Alabama for the SEC Championship (Dec. 6, Atlanta).
If Texas beats Texas A&M… Also done. Texas vaulted in human polls and improved its at-large case, but with three overall losses, the Longhorns still need help to crack the 12—think chaos in title games or a favorable final committee read on strength of record. Texas is firmly on the bowl line just outside CFP hosting range; a non-playoff New Year’s Six or top non-NY6 bowl remains very plausible.

Projected 12-team CFP bracket (before title games)

Order will be settled tonight; this shows likely structure rather than exact seeding names.

Byes (1–4):

Big Ten champion (Ohio State/Indiana winner)
SEC champion (Georgia/Alabama winner)
3–4. Highest-ranked among: Ole Miss, ACC champion, Big 12 champion

First-round campus games (Dec. 19–20):

(5) vs (12) — Host likely: Ole Miss/ACC or Big 12 runner-up vs. top at-large from outside the SEC/B1G elite
(6) vs (11) — Host likely: ACC/Big 12 champ or Alabama/Georgia loser vs. solid 2-loss at-large
(7) vs (10) — Host likely: top SEC/B1G at-large vs. upper-tier Big 12/ACC at-large
(8) vs (9) — A razor-thin line between the last host and first traveler; watch the ACC/Big 12 runner-up and a second Big Ten/SEC at-large here

Quarterfinals are slotted to the Cotton, Orange, Rose, and Sugar, followed by Fiesta and Peach in the semifinals.

Bowl projections snapshot (non-CFP)

New Year’s Six at-larges: Expect a deep SEC and Big Ten presence. The most likely non-CFP headliners include one or two of: Texas, a second Big Ten power (if it falls in Indy), and a top-two ACC/Big 12 side that narrowly misses the cut or gets bumped by auto-bid dynamics.
Citrus/ReliaQuest/Gator/Cheez-It/Alamo/Pop-Tarts tiers: High-draw brands with compelling QBs are coveted—Texas, Michigan, Tennessee/Vanderbilt tier, Penn State/Wisconsin-type programs if outside the CFP. Matchups will shuffle rapidly after Selection Day.

What to watch tonight on the CFP rankings show

Top line ordering: Does the committee elevate the Big Ten unbeaten above all SEC résumés? Margin in the title games will decide the No. 1 overall and semifinal pairing path.
Bye race (seeds 3–4): If Ole Miss sits ahead of the ACC/Big 12 champions in the penultimate ranking, a win in Atlanta by Georgia or Alabama could still leave the Rebels with a bye.
Hosts vs. travelers (seeds 8–10): The difference between playing at home on Dec. 20 and traveling as a 9–10 seed is massive. Small résumé edges—road wins, top-25 victories—will matter.
Texas positioning: The Longhorns’ jump after the A&M win sets the floor. If the committee warms to their strength of schedule, they could sit on the doorstep of the top 12 pending chaos.

Schedule & TV windows (ET)

First Round (campus): Fri Dec. 19 & Sat Dec. 20
Quarterfinals: Dec. 31 (Cotton/Orange) & Jan. 1 (Rose/Sugar)
Semifinals: Jan. 8–9 (Fiesta/Peach)
Championship: Jan. 19, Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens)

Fast answers to your searches

CFP predictions / projections: Expect Big Ten champion No. 1; SEC champion No. 2; Ole Miss and one of ACC/Big 12 champs rounding out the byes.
CFP rankings today: Penultimate release sets seeds 5–12 battles—watch Texas’s placement, plus the ACC/Big 12 order.
SEC standings angle: Georgia vs. Alabama is set for the title game; Texas A&M’s loss removed it from SEC championship contention.
College football games today live: Tonight’s release is the headline; title games take center stage this weekend.
Allstate Playoff Predictor vibes: Models broadly favor the Big Ten/SEC finalists to secure byes; at-large volatility sits in seeds 7–12.

Selection Day will lock it all in. For now, the board says win your league and you’re dancing; lose narrowly and hope your résumé stacks high enough to keep you home on Dec. 20 instead of packing for a winter road trip.