Bill Gates Warns of Reversal: 4.8 Million Children Could Die This Year
Bill Gates has issued a stark warning regarding global child mortality rates. In the recently released 2025 Goalkeepers Report, titled “We Can’t Stop at Almost,” he highlights a concerning reversal in the progress made in reducing childhood deaths.
Projected Rise in Childhood Deaths
For the first time in decades, the report indicates that the number of children dying before their fifth birthday is expected to increase. In 2024, 4.6 million children died before reaching five years old. This number is projected to climb to an estimated 4.8 million in 2025, marking a rise of over 200,000 deaths. Gates emphasized the impact of this increase, stating that it equates to more than 5,000 classrooms of children lost before they can even learn basic skills.
Decline in Global Health Funding
One of the report’s alarming revelations is the significant decline in global development assistance for health, which has dropped by 26.9% compared to previous years. This decline is exacerbated by cuts made by the U.S. government under the previous administration, which dismantled agencies like USAID, further diminishing foreign aid.
Gates referred to this trend as a “sobering” reality for anyone committed to improving human health and scientific progress. He warned that should the funding cuts continue, catastrophic consequences could emerge. If global health funding decreases by 20%, up to 12 million additional child deaths could occur by 2045. An even steeper reduction of 30% could result in 16 million more children losing their lives in the same timeframe.
Call for Urgent Action
Bill Gates reiterated the need for increased funding to combat preventable diseases. He plans to contribute approximately $100 billion of his remaining wealth to the Gates Foundation to address lethal diseases and improve child mortality rates. However, he stressed that government support is essential for these goals to be met.
“We could be the generation that had access to the most advanced science, yet failed to save lives due to lack of funding,” he stated.
A Roadmap to Resilience
The report outlines a three-part strategy to reverse current trends and protect children from preventable health conditions like malaria and HIV/AIDS:
- Prioritizing Primary Health Care: Investing less than $100 per person annually in primary health can prevent up to 90% of child deaths.
- Doubling Routine Immunization: Every dollar spent on immunization returns $54 in benefits. Innovations in vaccine administration can also lead to significant cost savings.
- Investing in Next-Generation Innovations: New malaria tools and maternal vaccines could potentially save millions of children by 2045.
Local Leadership and Community Efforts
The report also highlights local leaders working diligently despite budget constraints. For instance, Governor Muhammad Inuwa Yahaya of Gombe State, Nigeria, remains committed to primary healthcare amid financial challenges. He noted that effective progress doesn’t require perfect conditions but clear goals and determination.
In Kenya, community health worker Josephine Barasa has continued her critical work as a “mother mentor” despite her paid position being eliminated. She emphasized the persistence of need even when support systems diminish.
Bill Gates’ report makes it clear: without renewed commitment and funding, the progress in reducing child mortality could stall or even reverse, leading to devastating consequences for millions of children worldwide.
