UN Predicts Potential Emergence of ‘Weak’ La Niña in Coming Months
The United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a prediction regarding the potential emergence of a ‘weak’ La Niña phenomenon in the coming months. This cooling event is expected to occur between December and February, although many regions may continue to experience above-normal temperatures.
Probabilities and Impacts of La Niña
According to the WMO’s latest update, there is a 55% chance that a weak La Niña will influence weather patterns over the next three months. While La Niña is typically associated with global cooling, the WMO noted that many areas may still record elevated temperatures during this period.
Current Oceanic and Atmospheric Conditions
The WMO has assessed oceanic and atmospheric indicators, which currently suggest borderline conditions for the development of La Niña. However, the likelihood of a return to neutral conditions increases over subsequent months, with probabilities rising from 65% in January-March to 75% in February-April 2026.
Understanding La Niña
- La Niña involves the large-scale cooling of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- This phenomenon is linked to variations in tropical atmospheric circulation, including shifts in winds, pressure, and precipitation patterns.
- La Niña usually produces climate effects that are opposite to those of El Niño, impacting tropical regions significantly.
El Niño and Climate Change Context
The WMO also stated that the risk of experiencing an El Niño episode in the upcoming months is low. Both La Niña and El Niño are part of a broader spectrum of natural climate phenomena. These events occur against the backdrop of human-induced climate change, which leads to long-term global temperature increases, exacerbates extreme weather events, and affects seasonal precipitation and temperature patterns.
