NFL Betting Splits: Top Picks for Sunday, December 7

As we head into NFL Week 14, fans and bettors can look forward to 12 exciting matchups this Sunday, December 7. Analysis of betting splits reveals significant trends and insights for several key games.

NFL Betting Trends: Key Matchups

Dolphins vs. Jets

The Miami Dolphins (5-7) have been on a winning streak, winning three consecutive games, including a recent narrow victory over the Saints, 21-17. They failed to cover as 5.5-point favorites. Conversely, the New York Jets (3-9) recently ended a two-game losing streak with a 27-24 win against the Falcons, succeeding as 3-point underdogs.

This game opened with Miami favored by 3 points on the road. Despite receiving 63% of spread bets at DraftKings, Miami’s odds have shifted to -2.5. This adjustment indicates sharp betting action favoring the Jets, leading to a reverse line movement. The Jets are particularly valuable as a divisional dog, historically performing well in tight matchups.

• Division dogs with 3 points or fewer: 10-8 ATS (56%) this season.
• Since 2020: 99-80 ATS (55%) with a 7% ROI.

Notably, quarterback Tyrod Taylor stands out with a strong record against the spread. The Jets also thrive in low total games like this one, with the expected game total at 41.5 points.

Colts vs. Jaguars

The Indianapolis Colts (8-4) are struggling, having lost three of their last four games, including a recent defeat to the Texans. In contrast, the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) have found their rhythm, winning three straight, most recently defeating the Titans 25-3.

Initially, Indianapolis was favored by 3 points, but public confidence has shifted Jacksonville’s way, causing the line to move to -1.5 for the Colts. Jacksonville is capturing 84% of spread bets at Circa, suggesting considerable pro action backing the home side. They also boast significant numbers as a divisional dog.

• Public betting: 55% on Indianapolis, but consistent backing for Jacksonville.
• Smooth line movement indicates sharp money favoring the Jaguars.

The total for this matchup has also dropped from 47.5 to 45.5, with smart money pushing for a lower-scoring game. Outdoor divisional unders are performing well this season, boasting a 62% success rate.

Bengals vs. Bills

The Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) recently snapped a four-game losing streak with a solid 32-14 victory against the Ravens. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills (8-4) put together a strong performance against the Steelers, winning 26-7.

This game opened with Buffalo as a 6.5-point favorite, but betting action has favored the Bengals, moving the line to +6. Cincinnati’s advantageous position stems from their performance history and recent momentum.

• Dogs from the previous season facing playoff teams: 45-34 ATS (57%) this year.
• If underdog gets 6 points or more: 26-16 ATS (62%) this season.

Joe Burrow’s strong track record as a dog (20-11 ATS) adds to Cincinnati’s appeal. The total for this game has shifted upward from 51.5 to 54.5, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair.

Conclusion

This Sunday is packed with crucial NFL matchups. Bettors should keep an eye on the betting splits and adjust strategies accordingly to maximize their chances. The Dolphins, Jets, Colts, Jaguars, Bengals, and Bills all offer compelling stories and opportunities within the betting landscape.